In 2016, experts warned that if elected, President Donald Trump would levy tariffs and the world would fall into recession, or maybe even another Great Depression. A Moody’s Analytics prediction by Mark Zandi in 2016, prepared for the Washington Post, predicted that as many as 4 million jobs would be lost and the U.S. economy would either flatline or go into recession if President Trump levied tariffs against China and Mexico. Zandi called tariffs a disaster, saying, “This is a pretty ugly scenario, one that I think any rational person would want to avoid.”
It turns out that, quite rationally, Americans voted in their economic self-interests in favor of the Trump trade agenda in 2016, and Trump won the election. Trump never levied additional tariffs against Mexico — although he briefly threatened to do so — but he did levy them against China. But the outcomes were not as expected. Instead of losing 4 million jobs, in the establishment survey published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 6.6 million jobs have been created since Jan. 2017.
Moody’s said we would only have 139 million jobs. Instead we have 152 million. They were only off by 13 million. Unemployment is at a 50-year low of 3.5 percent. As for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), it has stayed very much in the positive, with mid-2 percent growth levels, with no recession in sight.And rather than provoking too much trade retaliation, Trump’s tariffs and tariff threats respectively have resulted in new trade agreements with China and Canada and Mexico. Who are the American people going to believe in 2020, the critics or their own lying eyes?