Big Media Polls and why they’re wrong


So, I came across this Twitter account. @AirBossUT or Real Election Analysis which I strongly urge you to follow if you can. Actually you can’t. This account was suspended on the same day ours was but I had taken a screenshot of her/his theory.

S/he is predicting a massive win by Donald Trump and thinks the Dems are now so worried that they’ll lose so big that they’re now defending House seats.

S/he has a great theory about the polls and the people who manipulate them.

Here’s the tweet

And remember this post from the guy who does the Primary Model prediction?

Lochel’s Bakery in Hatboro, PA is adding a little levity to this year’s election season by making the race more fun and delicious. Cookie sales have successfully predicted the outcome in the last three elections. And this year? Trump cookies are outselling Biden cookies by 3-to-1!

And this is what Nate Silver who was spectacularly wrong in 2016 is projecting. A less than 1% chance of a Trump landslide. Anyone believe this?