This NOAA prediction is completely WRONG

Reality: For the first time since 1982, the Atlantic has had no named storms (e.g., >=39 mph tropical cyclones) between July 3 – August 22.

Back in May, forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, were predicting above-average hurricane activity this year believing it would become the seventh consecutive above-average hurricane season.

NOAA’s outlook for the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season, which extends from June 1 to November 30, predicted a 65% chance of an above-normal season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA forecast a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.

Fast Forward>> to today

As says: mainstream predictions, however, are always predicated on a failing global warming hypotheses, a narrative that calls for linearly rising global temperatures, less snowfall, and increased storms. And because there is no denying their AGW manmade climate change liturgy, NOAA completely sidesteps the biggest forcing of them all –solar activity– and as a result, reality routinely proves their forecasts and outlooks spectacularly wrong, whether that be for temperature, snowfall, or, as in this case, hurricanes.

It’s now late-August of 2022 and the year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season has been the slowest ‘non-starter’ in 30 years–even longer by other metrics (I’ll get into that below). Not only is NOAA being proven wrong, they are, once again, being proven spectacularly wrong.

Powerful hurricanes last for days and enable massive transfer of energy (charge rebalancing) between the ionosphere and the Earth’s surface. So the main energetic source for major hurricanes is the electric potential difference between the Earth and its ionosphere. Reduced solar activity means a less (positively) charged ionosphere which means reduced electric potential difference between the ionosphere and the Earth which means less frequent category 5 hurricanes.

NOAA don’t appear to understand this–at least they don’t express this understanding publicly–hence their 10% forecast for a below average hurricane season during a time of historically low solar activity (the combined lowest for 200 years).

There’s still time for a mega event – but it’s not the busiest

This information came from, the most interesting climate site on the web. He warns us of global cooling as we approach the Grand Solar Minimum as well as factoring in real events such as the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano eruption.

The COLD TIMES are returning, the mid-latitudes are REFREEZING in line with historically low solar activitycloud-nucleating Cosmic Rays, and a meridional jet stream flow (among many other forcings, including the impending release of the Beaufort Gyre).

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