Former President Donald Trump’s lead against President Joe Biden has widened in the latest poll of seven battleground states, with the latest Morning Consult poll showing Trump beating Biden by five percentage points, 47% to 42%. This is a slightly wider lead than Trump had over Biden in swing state polling conducted in early November that showed Trump ahead of Biden by four percentage points, 44% to 48%.
Meanwhile, new polling conducted for CNN by SSRS shows Trump’s margins widening specifically in Michigan and Georgia, buoyed by voters who sat out the 2020 election but plan to vote in 2024.
The Morning Consult poll shows Trump leading Biden by three points in Arizona, which records show he lost by a slim 0.3% in 2020, four points in Michigan which he lost by 2.8% in 2020, and a single point in Pennsylvania, which he lost by a narrow 1.2% in 2020.
Trump leads Biden by a substantial seven points in Georgia, which he lost by a razor thin 0.2% in 2020, by five points in Nevada which he lost by 2.4% in 2020, and by six points in Wisconsin which he lost by 0.6% in 2020. Trump is now ahead by double digits in North Carolina, where he leads Biden by 11 points after winning the state narrowly by 1.4% in 2020.
Most troubling lately is Biden’s erosion of support among Democrat leaners in his own party as well as younger voters, largely due to economic issues and Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas conflict.
Polling from YouGov found Millennials and younger Gen X voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the Israel Hamas conflict at the highest rates, largely due to perceptions among these groups that Biden favors Israel.
The CNN poll of Michigan and Georgia voters reveals another group of Americans who are flocking to Trump, specifically eligible voters who sat out the 2020 election. Michigan – which Trump lost in 2020 – appears to be swinging back toward the GOP, with Trump beating Biden by ten points, 50% to 40% in the CNN poll.
Michigan residents who did not vote in the 2020 election appear particularly motivated to replace Biden, and plan to support Trump by a jaw-dropping 40 points according to CNN’s poll.
In Georgia, Trump is ahead of Biden by five points, 49% to 44%, and once again he leads Biden by wide double digits – 26 percentage points – among Georgia residents who sat out the 2020 election.
Previous research into low-propensity voters has shown that Americans without a college degree, younger and minority voters are overrepresented in this group, and that infrequent voters have favored Trump in past elections – when they turn out and vote.
Trump holds a commanding lead among Americans living in contentious battleground states who chose not to vote in 2020, and these voters are highly motivated to replace Biden in the Oval Office. Given the Trump-y lean of low-propensity voters, maintaining their allegiance and getting them to the ballot box could greatly improve GOP margins in these two key states.
Manzanita Miller is an associate analyst at Americans for Limited Government Foundation.