When Russia fired its Oreshnik missile, NATO knew it’s done…

Leave a CommentWhen Russia fired its Oreshnik missile, NATO knew it’s done…Commentary, National Security

Last week Russia launched an ICBM, the first ever to be fired in a war, at a target in Ukraine. We covered it.

First time ICBM used in war. US knew. Didn’t warn EU, Ukraine.

What it means and the message it sent

The Oreshnik missile is considered a significant threat to NATO due to several factors:

  1. Speed and Evasion: The missile reportedly travels at speeds exceeding Mach 10 (or potentially up to Mach 12), which makes it extremely difficult to intercept with current missile defense systems. Its hypersonic capabilities mean it can reach targets quickly, reducing the reaction time for defenses.
  2. MIRV Capability: The Oreshnik is equipped with a Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) payload, allowing it to hit multiple targets with one launch. This capability not only increases its destructive potential but also complicates defense strategies significantly because intercepting multiple warheads is more challenging than dealing with a single warhead.
  3. Non-Nuclear Hypersonic Configuration: Despite being nuclear-capable, its use in a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration could allow for devastating conventional strikes without escalating to nuclear warfare. This presents a strategic dilemma for NATO, as it could target military and industrial sites within Europe with conventional warheads, potentially disrupting NATO’s operational capabilities without crossing the nuclear threshold.
  4. Range and Coverage: With a range that reportedly allows it to threaten most of Europe and possibly parts of the U.S., the Oreshnik extends Russia’s strategic reach, challenging NATO’s missile defense systems in Europe.
  5. Psychological and Strategic Impact: The deployment of such a weapon sends a strong message about Russia’s military capabilities, potentially affecting NATO’s strategic planning and deterrence policies. The use of Oreshnik in combat was seen as a direct response to Western support for Ukraine, indicating Russia’s willingness to escalate if provoked.
  6. Defense System Limitations: Even advanced systems like the U.S. Patriot missile defense might struggle against such high-speed, maneuvering targets, particularly when dealing with MIRVs.

The combination of these attributes makes the Oreshnik a formidable weapon in Russia’s arsenal, potentially shifting the strategic balance by challenging NATO’s defensive capabilities and forcing a reevaluation of how NATO might respond to such threats.

Read this – bit overblown but interesting

Comments

The claim that Russia’s Oreshnik is a “checkmate” for NATO and the USA overstates its capabilities:

  1. Speed and MIRV: Up to Mach 11, with multiple target capabilities.
  2. Non-Nuclear Option: Can use kinetic energy, reducing collateral damage compared to nuclear weapons.
  3. Destruction Claims: While capable of targeting carriers and bases, the effectiveness against all such targets, especially hardened ones, might be limited. U.S. defenses like Aegis are designed to counter such threats.
  4. Legal and Treaty Status: No active treaties prevent its use, but international laws of war apply.
  5. Defense Developments: NATO and the U.S. are advancing countermeasures against hypersonic threats, indicating that while challenging, it’s not an “unstoppable” weapon as suggested.

In conclusion, while the Oreshnik is a significant strategic weapon, describing it as an absolute game-changer or capable of destroying all high-value military targets instantly is an exaggeration.