China’s 2020 Election Interference Plot and the Looming Threat to 2026

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In June 2025, a bombshell revelation shook the U.S. political landscape: the FBI uncovered evidence of a Chinese Communist Party (CCP) plot to interfere in the 2020 presidential election. According to declassified intelligence, China allegedly orchestrated a scheme to manufacture fake U.S. driver’s licenses, exploiting lax voter registration laws to facilitate fraudulent mail-in ballots in support of Joe Biden. While the plot was only partially corroborated before its investigation was curtailed, the disclosure raises alarms about China’s ambitions to manipulate American democracy. As the 2026 midterm elections approach, the prospect of renewed Chinese interference looms large, with Beijing potentially deploying sophisticated tactics to influence down-ballot races and deepen U.S. divisions. 

The 2020 Plot: A New Frontier in Election Meddling

The FBI’s findings, reported in June 2025, allege that the CCP sought to exploit vulnerabilities in U.S. election systems by producing counterfeit driver’s licenses to enable fraudulent mail-in voting. Posts on X and media reports indicate the operation targeted seven swing states, aiming to sway the presidential outcome. The scheme leveraged states’ minimal voter ID requirements, which often do not mandate proof of citizenship for registration. While officials noted the intelligence was recalled before full investigation, its partial corroboration suggests a bold attempt by China to manipulate the 2020 election. The CIA’s alleged awareness of the plot, without public disclosure at the time, has fueled accusations of institutional cover-ups, intensifying distrust in electoral integrity.

This revelation builds on earlier U.S. intelligence assessments. A 2021 National Intelligence Council report stated that China “considered but did not deploy” significant influence efforts in 2020, suggesting restraint compared to Russia’s overt interference. However, a 2023 declassified assessment confirmed China’s attempts to influence the 2022 midterms, targeting select races to undermine candidates critical of Beijing. The 2020 plot, if verified, marks a shift from influence to direct interference, involving physical manipulation of election processes rather than just propaganda. The use of fake IDs to enable non-citizen voting, though unproven in scale or impact, represents a daring escalation, exploiting the chaos of mail-in voting during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Why China Interfered in 2020

China’s motivations in 2020 likely stemmed from strategic interests. The Trump administration’s aggressive trade policies, tariffs, and public criticism of the CCP—particularly over COVID-19 origins—made Beijing wary of a second Trump term. A Biden presidency, perceived as less confrontational, aligned with China’s goal of reducing U.S. pressure on its economic and geopolitical ambitions. By targeting swing states, the CCP aimed to tip a close election without leaving overt fingerprints. The operation’s focus on physical interference, rather than the digital disinformation campaigns China employed in 2022 and 2024, suggests an experimental approach, testing America’s electoral vulnerabilities.

The 2026 Threat: Likelihood and Context

The 2026 midterms, set for November 3, present a prime opportunity for China to refine and expand its interference tactics. Several factors suggest a high likelihood of renewed efforts. First, the 2020 plot’s exposure, coupled with limited consequences, may embolden Beijing to act again, assuming U.S. defenses remain porous. Second, midterms typically favor the opposition party, and with Republicans holding a 53-47 Senate majority and a narrow House edge, China may see value in sowing chaos to weaken U.S. governance. Third, Beijing’s growing rivalry with the U.S., fueled by trade disputes and military tensions in the Indo-Pacific, incentivizes undermining American stability.
The 2024 election cycle offers clues about China’s evolving strategy. U.S. intelligence and private researchers, including Meta and Graphika, documented China’s “Spamouflage” operation, a sprawling network of fake social media accounts spreading disinformation. Unlike 2020’s physical interference, 2024 efforts focused on down-ballot Senate and House races, amplifying divisive issues like abortion, immigration, and U.S. foreign policy. A 2023 Meta report noted thousands of PRC-linked accounts across 50 platforms, targeting both conservative and liberal audiences to exacerbate polarization. While these efforts had limited impact—failing to significantly sway voters—they demonstrate China’s shift toward subtle, scalable influence campaigns.

Potential Mechanisms for 2026 Interference

China’s interference in 2026 is likely to blend physical, digital, and hybrid tactics, leveraging lessons from 2020 and 2024. Based on recent patterns and intelligence warnings, several mechanisms are plausible:
  1. Cyberattacks on Election Infrastructure: In 2020, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien warned of Chinese-linked hackers targeting election systems, including state-level voter databases. A 2024 Microsoft report highlighted China’s attempts to breach campaign networks. In 2026, Beijing could escalate these efforts, hacking voter registration systems to manipulate rolls or disrupt vote counting. While U.S. election systems are decentralized, making mass hacking difficult, targeted attacks on swing districts could create chaos and erode trust.
  2. Disinformation via AI and Social Media: China’s use of AI-driven propaganda, as noted in a 2024 DFRLab report, is becoming more sophisticated. Generative AI can produce tailored deepfakes, memes, and posts mimicking American voices. In 2024, PRC-linked accounts posed as Trump supporters, spreading conspiracy theories to inflame divisions. For 2026, China could target state and local races, amplifying wedge issues like crime, taxes, or China policy to boost or undermine candidates. Platforms like X, with reduced content moderation, are vulnerable to these campaigns.
  3. Physical Interference Redux: The 2020 fake ID scheme, though risky, proved China’s willingness to manipulate physical election processes. In 2026, Beijing could refine this approach, using proxies to distribute counterfeit documents or exploit mail-in voting loopholes. States with lax voter ID laws, like New Jersey or Michigan, are prime targets. Such efforts would likely be small-scale to avoid detection but could disproportionately affect tight races.
  4. Influence Through Proxies and Funding: China’s interference in Canada’s 2019 and 2021 elections involved covert funding of candidates via proxies. A 2023 CSIS report detailed CCP efforts to support preferred candidates through undisclosed donations. In 2026, China could funnel money to U.S. campaigns through intermediaries, such as diaspora networks or shell organizations, targeting congressional races where candidates align with Beijing’s interests, such as softer trade policies.
  5. Exploiting Domestic Divisions: China’s 2024 strategy focused on amplifying U.S. polarization. A 2024 Atlantic Council report noted PRC efforts to stoke unrest by promoting divisive narratives. In 2026, Beijing could intensify this, using bots and trolls to spread false stories about election fraud or candidate scandals, potentially inciting protests or violence in a polarized post-election environment.

Challenges and U.S. Defenses

China’s interference threatens American sovereignty and demands a robust response. The Trump administration’s hardline stance on China—evident in tariffs and sanctions—makes Beijing’s meddling a strategic counterpunch. However, U.S. defenses are improving. The FBI and CISA’s proactive warnings in 2024, coupled with Meta’s takedowns of PRC-linked accounts, show growing vigilance. Paper ballots and decentralized voting systems make widespread fraud difficult, but local vulnerabilities persist.
The bigger challenge is public trust. The 2020 plot’s belated disclosure fuels skepticism about election integrity, a sentiment Republicans must address without amplifying Chinese narratives. Strengthening voter ID laws, enhancing cybersecurity, and fostering public-private partnerships to monitor social media are critical. Internationally, exposing and sanctioning CCP operatives could deter future interference, though China’s denials and non-interference rhetoric complicate diplomacy.

Outlook

China’s 2020 election interference plot, though not fully realized, signals its intent to challenge U.S. democracy. The 2026 midterms, with their high stakes for congressional control, are a likely target for Beijing to test refined tactics. From cyberattacks and AI-driven disinformation to physical manipulation and covert funding, China’s toolkit is expanding. While 2024 efforts had low impact, their sophistication suggests 2026 could see bolder moves, especially in close races. For the U.S., countering this threat requires vigilance, transparency, and a commitment to securing elections without fueling domestic division. As the CCP’s global ambitions grow, so too does its stake in weakening America’s democratic resolve.