The 2026 United States Senate special election in Florida, set for November 3, 2026, is shaping up to be a high-stakes clash that will test the strength of the America First movement in one of the nation’s reddest states. This election, triggered by Marco Rubio’s resignation to become Secretary of State under President Donald Trump’s second administration, will decide who fills the final two years of Rubio’s term. With Florida’s political landscape firmly in Republican hands, the race is a chance to cement the state’s conservative dominance—but it’s not without its challenges.
Governor Ron DeSantis, a towering figure in the America First agenda, appointed Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody as the interim senator to replace Rubio. Moody, who served as Attorney General from 2019 to 2025, brings a record of cracking down on illegal immigration, defending Second Amendment rights, and pushing back against federal overreach. She’s announced her candidacy to hold the seat in the special election, positioning herself as a loyal ally of Trump’s policies. Her platform emphasizes border security, economic protectionism, and dismantling what she calls the “woke bureaucratic swamp.” But Moody’s not running unopposed in the Republican primary, and the fight for the nomination could expose fault lines within the party.
Challenging Moody is Jake Lang, a podcaster and controversial figure tied to the January 6 Capitol protest. Lang’s campaign leans hard into the America First base, railing against establishment Republicans and pledging unwavering loyalty to Trump’s vision. His outsider status and fiery rhetoric resonate with voters skeptical of career politicians, but his lack of political experience and polarizing past could alienate moderates. The Republican primary is expected to be a slugfest, with Moody’s institutional backing clashing against Lang’s grassroots energy.
Other potential candidates, like U.S. Representatives Kat Cammack, Cory Mills, or Laurel Lee, or even DeSantis himself, have been floated, but only Moody and Lang have confirmed their bids so far.
On the Democratic side, the race looks like an uphill battle in a state that’s lurched rightward. Florida hasn’t elected a Democratic senator since 2018 or a Democratic governor since 1994, and Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024. Josh Weil, a public school teacher who ran for Florida’s 6th Congressional District in a 2025 special election, is seeking the Democratic nomination. Weil, who lost to Republican Randy Fine by 14 points despite outraising him, is pitching himself as a fresh voice for working families. Former Congressman Alan Grayson, a perennial candidate known for his combative style, has also filed to run. Grayson, who represented Florida’s 9th District from 2009 to 2011 and 2013 to 2017, brings name recognition but carries baggage from past controversies. The Democratic field remains fluid, with no clear frontrunner.
Florida’s political terrain favors Republicans. The state’s Cook Partisan Voting Index rates it R+7, and Republicans hold a voter registration advantage of over one million. In 2022, DeSantis won reelection by 19.4 points, and Rubio cruised to victory with 57.7% of the vote. Recent special elections in Florida’s 1st and 6th Congressional Districts, held in April 2025, showed Democrats narrowing the gap—flipping Escambia County and cutting Republican margins by double digits—but still falling short. Florida GOP Chair Evan Power dismissed these gains, pointing to the party’s lock on statewide offices, both U.S. Senate seats, and supermajorities in the state legislature. For Democrats to compete, they’d need a seismic shift, likely tied to economic fallout from Trump’s tariff policies, which have sparked market volatility and recession fears.
The special election’s outcome will hinge on turnout and messaging.
Florida law mandates a special election to fill Senate vacancies during the next general election cycle, with early voting periods already set for counties like Orange, Brevard, and Escambia in 2025 special elections, suggesting robust voter engagement infrastructure. Republicans are banking on their base’s enthusiasm for Trump’s agenda, especially on issues like trade protectionism and border security. Democrats, led by state party chair Nikki Fried, are vowing to contest every seat, arguing that voters are rejecting Trump’s policies. Yet, with Florida’s rightward tilt and the GOP’s organizational edge, the race leans heavily Republican.
This election isn’t just about a Senate seat—it’s a referendum on the America First movement’s staying power.
Moody’s campaign, aligned with Trump and DeSantis, aims to keep Florida a conservative fortress. Lang’s insurgency, meanwhile, tests whether the GOP base craves a purer, more confrontational brand of populism. For Democrats, it’s a long shot to flip a state that’s slipped out of their grasp. Come November 2026, Florida will show whether the America First wave keeps rising or faces its first cracks.