Ricketts Faces a Tough Test in America First Stronghold
The 2026 U.S. Senate election in Nebraska, set for November 3, 2026, promises to be a heated contest as incumbent Republican Pete Ricketts seeks a full six-year term against independent challenger Dan Osborn. Ricketts, appointed to the seat in 2023 and elected in a 2024 special election with 62.6% of the vote, is a rock-solid America First conservative backed by President Donald Trump. Osborn, a union leader and steamfitter who nearly upset Senator Deb Fischer in 2024, is back with a populist pitch that could test the GOP’s grip on deep-red Nebraska. From a center-right, America First perspective, this race is about defending Trump’s agenda—border security, tax cuts, and deregulation—against an independent who threatens to dilute Republican dominance. With early polling and candidate moves shaping the field, here’s a look at Nebraska’s 2026 Senate race and what it means for the heartland.
The Players: Ricketts vs. Osborn
Pete Ricketts, a former Nebraska governor (2015-2023) and scion of the TD Ameritrade fortune, is a formidable incumbent. Appointed by Governor Jim Pillen on January 12, 2023, to replace Ben Sasse, who resigned to lead the University of Florida, Ricketts cruised to victory in the November 5, 2024, special election, defeating Democrat Preston Love Jr. with 62.6% of the vote. His campaign emphasized border security, backing Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy and the border wall, and fiscal conservatism, touting his gubernatorial record of cutting budget growth from 6.5% to 2.8%. Ricketts’ wealth allows him to self-fund, a key advantage, and his July 4, 2025, vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA)—securing $175 billion for border security and permanent tax cuts—cements his America First credentials.
Dan Osborn, a registered nonpartisan since 2004, is a wildcard. A former Navy veteran, Nebraska Army National Guard member, and president of BCTGM International Union Local 50G, Osborn led a 2021 Kellogg’s strike in Omaha, boosting his name recognition. In 2024, he challenged Senator Deb Fischer as an independent, losing 53%-47%—a mere 30,000 votes—while raising $14 million, including late Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee funds. On July 8, 2025, Osborn announced his 2026 bid against Ricketts, framing it as “the billionaire versus the mechanic.” His platform champions workers, affordable healthcare, and reproductive rights, but his refusal to caucus with either party and his 2024 flirtation with Trump’s border wall rhetoric make him a tough read. A July 10, 2025, Sabato’s Crystal Ball report shifted the race from Safe Republican to Likely Republican, citing Osborn’s name recognition and fundraising prowess.
The Landscape: Nebraska’s Red Roots Meet Populist Push
Nebraska is a Republican fortress. Trump won the state by 20 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a Senate race since Ben Nelson in 2006. The state’s congressional delegation is all-GOP, and its trifecta—Republican governor, legislature, and congressional dominance—has held for 26 years. Ricketts’ 2024 special election win, with 90,000 more votes than Fischer’s, shows his strength in a state where Republicans hold a 2-1 voter registration edge. A July 2024 Rasmussen Reports poll found 62% of Americans support reducing federal overreach, aligning with Ricketts’ push for smaller government and tax relief.
Yet, Osborn’s 2024 performance—winning four counties, including two that backed Trump (Thurston and Sarpy) and two that went for Kamala Harris (Douglas and Lancaster)—proves he can cross party lines. His 47% against Fischer was the best for a non-Republican Senate candidate in Nebraska since 1970, per a July 8, 2025, Wikipedia entry. An April 2025 internal poll by Osborn’s campaign showed him trailing Ricketts 46%-45%, a statistical tie, though such polls are often skewed to boost momentum. The Nebraska Democratic Party, led by chair Jane Kleeb, announced on July 8, 2025, it won’t recruit a candidate, as in 2024, leaving Osborn as the de facto anti-GOP choice. This could consolidate progressive and moderate votes, but his rejection of Democratic support risks alienating party resources.
Key Issues: America First vs. Working-Class Populism
Ricketts is running on Trump’s playbook: secure borders, economic growth, and cracking down on waste. His support for the OBBBA’s $285 billion in SNAP savings and 23,000 federal job cuts by July 1, 2025, resonates with Nebraskans fed up with Washington’s bloat. His Flex Fuel Fairness Act, introduced in 2024, boosts ethanol markets, a boon for Nebraska’s ag economy, which contributes $22 billion annually. Ricketts’ campaign, via spokesperson Will Coup on July 8, 2025, accused Osborn of being “bought by liberal, out-of-state donors,” tying him to Chuck Schumer’s agenda. This paints Osborn as a closet Democrat, a risky label in a state where only 28% of voters lean left.
Osborn counters with a working-class pitch, railing against wealth inequality and corporate greed. His 2024 campaign highlighted Nebraska’s solutions, like the SNAP Next Step Act, which helped recipients boost incomes by $25,000 annually. He’s vowed to stay independent, saying on July 8, 2025, he won’t caucus with either party, appealing to voters tired of the “two-party doom loop.” But his past support for progressive causes like reproductive rights and his $14 million haul from coastal donors in 2024 give Ricketts ammo to question his independence. Nebraska’s 3.2% unemployment rate in July 2025 and strong ag sector could blunt Osborn’s economic arguments, as voters may credit Trump’s policies for stability.
Challenges and Opportunities
For Ricketts, the challenge is complacency. His 25-point 2024 win was against weaker opposition, and Osborn’s populist appeal could erode his margin in urban areas like Omaha and Lincoln, which house 60% of Nebraska’s population. The Cook Political Report’s June 28, 2025, ratings list the race as Likely Republican, but a souring economy or Trump’s approval dipping below 50% could tighten it. Ricketts’ wealth and GOP machine, backed by groups like One Nation running ads since May 2025, give him a financial edge.
Osborn’s hurdle is overcoming Nebraska’s red tide. His 2024 loss, despite heavy funding, shows the limits of independent runs in a GOP stronghold. His feud with Democrats, who criticized his 2024 tactics to clear the ballot, could limit grassroots support. The Legal Marijuana Now Party’s decision on September 4, 2024, not to field a candidate after Kerry Eddy’s withdrawal helps Osborn avoid vote-splitting, but he needs to broaden his appeal beyond union voters. His April 2025 exploratory committee and early fundraising—already over $1 million by July 2025—signal he’s a serious threat.
What It Means for Nebraska
From an America First perspective, Ricketts is the firewall against Washington’s dysfunction. His border security focus and tax cuts align with Nebraska’s conservative values, where 55% of voters backed Trump’s 2024 agenda, per exit polls. Losing this seat would weaken the GOP’s 53-47 Senate majority, won on November 5, 2024, and stall Trump’s reforms. Osborn’s independence sounds appealing, but his progressive leanings could pull him toward Schumer’s camp, undermining Nebraska’s voice in a Republican-led Senate.
For regular Nebraskans, the race pits stability against change. Ricketts offers continuity—jobs, ag support, and lower taxes—while Osborn promises a worker-first shakeup. With 33 Senate seats up in 2026, including competitive races in Maine and North Carolina, Nebraska’s contest could tip the balance. A July 10, 2025, Sabato’s Crystal Ball analysis notes Osborn’s entry makes this “a live contest,” but Ricketts remains the favorite.
The Outlook
The 2026 Nebraska Senate race is no cakewalk for Pete Ricketts. Dan Osborn’s populist surge and 2024 near-upset make him a credible challenger, but Nebraska’s deep-red roots and Ricketts’ America First record give the GOP the edge. With Trump’s agenda on the line—border walls, tax cuts, and deregulation—Ricketts must hammer home his results while painting Osborn as a liberal in disguise. For Nebraskans, this is about choosing a senator who’ll fight for their values in a divided Washington. The polls are tight, the stakes are high, and the heartland’s watching.