The 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, set for November 3, 2026, is shaping up to be a chaotic brawl that could jeopardize the GOP’s iron grip on the Lone Star State. Incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, is locked in a brutal primary fight with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a firebrand who’s riding the America First wave. Meanwhile, Democrats, led by former Congressman Colin Allred, smell blood, hoping a fractured GOP hands them a rare shot at a seat they haven’t won since 1988. Recent revelations, including July 21, 2025, reports of Paxton’s personal scandals resurfacing, have turned this race into a messy spectacle. This internal GOP war risks derailing President Donald Trump’s agenda—border security, tax cuts, and draining the swamp—while giving Democrats an opening in a red state. Here’s the full scoop on the candidates, the drama, and what’s at stake.
The Republican Rumble: Cornyn vs. Paxton
John Cornyn, a four-term senator since 2002, is the GOP establishment’s poster boy. Elected to the Texas Supreme Court in 1990 and state attorney general in 1998, he’s never lost a race, cruising to re-election in 2020 with 53% of the vote. Cornyn’s campaign touts his role as Senate Republican Whip (2013-2019) and his votes for Trump’s first-term wins, like the 2017 tax cuts and $175 billion in border security funding via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025. But his support for Ukraine aid, the 2022 bipartisan gun safety bill post-Uvalde, and DREAM Act nods have branded him a “RINO” among hardline conservatives. A June 2025 Wall Street Journal interview saw him briefly float stepping aside if a stronger anti-Paxton candidate emerged, only to retract it days later, signaling nerves.
Ken Paxton, Texas AG since 2015, announced his challenge on April 8, 2025, positioning himself as the America First warrior Texas needs alongside Senator Ted Cruz. Paxton’s campaign, launched on Fox News with Laura Ingraham, slams Cornyn’s “22 years of lackluster production” and pledges unwavering loyalty to Trump’s priorities: tariffs, energy independence, and border enforcement. His 2023 impeachment by the GOP-led Texas House for bribery and abuse of power, followed by a Senate acquittal, only fueled his martyr status among the MAGA base. A May 28, 2025, Texas Southern University poll shows Paxton leading Cornyn 47%-38% in a two-way primary and 45%-38% if Congressman Wesley Hunt joins, though Hunt hasn’t declared by July 23, 2025. Paxton’s lead among “Trump Movement” voters is massive, per the poll, while Cornyn clings to “Traditional Republicans,” a shrinking bloc.
The Scandal Bomb: Paxton’s Personal Life Implodes
On July 21, 2025, The Washington Post dropped a bombshell: Paxton’s divorce and adultery allegations are rocking his campaign. His wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in late 2024, citing infidelity tied to his 2023 impeachment saga, where he was accused of an affair linked to bribery charges. Cornyn’s allies, backed by the Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, are hammering Paxton’s “character flaws,” with ads highlighting his legal troubles—securities fraud charges from 2015 and ongoing FBI probes. Some Paxton backers, like a few unnamed donors cited in the report, are “rethinking” support, though his core MAGA base seems unfazed. A July 14, 2025, NOTUS report called the race a “cash-burning demolition derby,” with Cornyn’s $20 million war chest dwarfing Paxton’s weaker fundraising, per FEC filings. Paxton’s scandals are a distraction—his fight against Big Tech censorship and election fraud probes aligns with Trump’s vision, but his baggage could sink the GOP in November 2026.
Democratic Opportunists: Allred Leads a Crowded Field
Democrats, shut out of Texas statewide wins since 1994, see a crack in the GOP’s armor. Colin Allred, a former NFL linebacker and three-term congressman from Dallas, announced his 2026 bid on July 1, 2025, after losing to Ted Cruz in 2024 by 8.5 points (53%-45%). Allred raised $95 million last cycle, outpacing Cruz, and outperformed Kamala Harris by 5.5 points, grabbing nearly 200,000 more votes than her in Texas. His July 2025 video vows to fight “corrupt politicians like Cornyn and Paxton,” pushing an anti-corporate PAC stance and veterans’ healthcare. A May 28, 2025, Texas Southern University poll gives Allred a +7 favorability rating, the highest statewide, and shows him trailing Paxton by just 2 points in a general election matchup—within the margin of error—while leading Cornyn by single digits.
The Democratic primary is getting crowded. A July 4-7, 2025, NRSC poll shocked observers, showing Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett leading Allred 35%-20%, with Beto O’Rourke and Joaquin Castro at 13% each, and 18% undecided. Crockett, a rising star who hasn’t declared by July 23, 2025, draws progressive fire with her bold rhetoric, like her July 4, 2025, ESSENCE Festival speech slamming GOP “extremists.” O’Rourke, who nearly beat Cruz in 2018 (losing 51%-48%) but flopped in 2022’s gubernatorial race, teased a run in April 2025, saying he’ll go if Texans want him. Castro, a San Antonio congressman since 2013, is circling but hasn’t committed. Former astronaut Terry Virts, an Air Force colonel, entered on June 24, 2025, taking a swipe at Chuck Schumer to appeal to moderates. State Senator Roland Gutierrez, a 2024 primary loser to Allred, is mulling another shot, per a May 2, 2025, Houston Chronicle report, banking on his Uvalde-driven gun control passion.
The Stakes: A GOP Civil War Risks It All
Texas is a Republican fortress—Trump won it by 13 points in 2024, and the GOP holds both Senate seats, all statewide offices, and a 25-12 House delegation edge. But the Cornyn-Paxton slugfest could crack that foundation. Paxton’s lead in primary polls, like the 9-point edge in the May 28, 2025, TSU survey, reflects the GOP base’s shift to hard-right America First voters, who see Cornyn as a squishy RINO for backing Ukraine aid and gun control talks. Yet, Paxton’s impeachment, divorce, and legal woes make him “too tarred by scandal” for the general election, per a July 12, 2025, Politico analysis. The Senate Leadership Fund’s poll shows Allred edging Paxton 46%-45%, while Cornyn leads Allred by single digits. A fractious March 3, 2026, primary, with a possible May 26 runoff, could bleed GOP resources and turnout, especially if Trump’s approval dips or the economy sours.
Trump’s endorsement, still unissued by July 23, 2025, is the wild card. Paxton’s a vocal Trump ally, while Cornyn’s 2023 skepticism about Trump’s electability drew MAGA ire. A July 19, 2025, Washington Post op-ed warned that a Paxton nomination, backed by Trump, could hand Democrats the seat if his scandals alienate moderates. The Cook Political Report rates the race “Likely Republican” as of July 17, 2025, but a Paxton win could shift it to “Toss-Up.” Democrats need four seats to flip the Senate’s 53-47 GOP majority, and Texas, alongside Maine and North Carolina, is their best shot, per a June 6, 2025, 270toWin analysis.
Why It Matters for America First
From an America First perspective, this race is a battle for the soul of the GOP. Cornyn’s experience and fundraising—$20 million by July 2025—offer stability but reek of establishment complacency. His Ukraine votes and gun bill role clash with Trump’s “peace through strength” and Second Amendment absolutism. Paxton, despite his flaws, is a fighter—suing Big Tech, probing voter fraud, and defying RINOs. But his personal scandals, amplified by July 21, 2025, divorce reports, could torch the GOP’s chances, letting a Democrat like Allred sneak through. A loss here would kneecap Trump’s agenda—tariffs, border walls, and deregulation—in a 2027 Senate where every vote counts.
For Texans, this is about who’ll deliver for the heartland. Cornyn’s got a record but lacks fire. Paxton’s got passion but carries baggage. Allred’s slick but leans left, with his 2021 Biden border vote drawing Cruz’s scorn as “disingenuous.” The GOP needs to unify behind a candidate who embodies America First grit without self-destructing. With 45.5% of Texans in Democratic-leaning counties and 40.1% in solid GOP ones, per 2020 election data, the general election isn’t a gimme if Paxton stumbles.
Will the GOP screw up one more time?
The 2026 Texas Senate race is a messy, high-stakes showdown. Cornyn’s battling Paxton’s America First surge, with July 21, 2025, divorce and adultery allegations threatening to derail the AG’s momentum. Democrats, led by Allred and a crowded primary field, are licking their chops, hoping a wounded Paxton hands them a miracle. Trump’s endorsement could tip the scales, but a divided GOP risks losing a safe seat, stalling the America First revolution. Texans deserve a senator who’ll fight for secure borders, energy independence, and economic nationalism—not personal drama or establishment inertia. The March 3, 2026, primary will set the stage, and the GOP better get its act together or face a reckoning.