Just one year after Donald Trump’s decisive 2024 victory, securing 312 electoral votes against Kamala Harris’s 226, the focus has turned to the 2028 election. With Trump ineligible for a third term due to constitutional limits, the Republican field is coalescing around Vice President JD Vance, whose alignment with America First policies on trade, immigration, and foreign restraint positions him as the heir apparent. Democrats, meanwhile, grapple with a fragmented party following their 2024 loss, lacking a unifying figure amid ongoing debates over economic and social priorities.
Vance Emerges as Clear GOP Frontrunner
At 41, Vice President JD Vance has quickly become the dominant force in early Republican discussions. His background as an Ohio senator, author, and advocate for working-class Americans resonates with the party’s base, emphasizing domestic industry revival, secure borders, and a cautious approach to international engagements that prioritize U.S. interests.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 54, has privately indicated support for Vance’s potential candidacy, viewing him as the natural successor to the current administration’s agenda. Rubio’s foreign policy experience, including efforts to bolster alliances while focusing on American strength, could make him a key ally rather than a rival.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 47, lingers in the conversation with his record of economic expansion and pushback against federal mandates, though his standing has weakened since his 2024 primary bid. Other names include former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, 53, known for her global outlook but critiqued for establishment ties; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, 40, with his anti-establishment flair; and senators like Arkansas’s Tom Cotton, 48, and South Carolina’s Tim Scott, 60, who highlight security and fiscal conservatism.
“Secretary of State Marco Rubio is privately telling confidants that JD Vance is the frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination and that he’d support the vice president if he chose to run, according to two people close to the administration.” pic.twitter.com/qLuaWD5uhl
— Dennis Lennox (@dennislennox) November 7, 2025
Polls Show Vance Commanding Republican Support
Recent surveys confirm Vance’s strong position. An Emerson College poll from November 3-4, 2025, shows Vance with 53.6 percent among Republican voters in an open-ended question, ahead of Trump at 7.4 percent, Rubio at 6.1 percent, and DeSantis at 1.7 percent, with 25.4 percent undecided.
A Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll from September 2025 places Vance ahead in New Hampshire. Aggregates indicate Vance leading weighted averages for the GOP primary. A Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll from October 2-6, 2025, has Vance at 38 percent among GOP voters, followed by Donald Trump Jr. at 26 percent.
These figures highlight Vance’s ability to unite the Trump coalition, though the low numbers for challengers leave space for shifts if issues arise.
Democrats Search for Direction in Open Field
Democrats enter 2028 without an obvious leader after Harris’s defeat. California Governor Gavin Newsom, 58, has ramped up activity in key states, promoting progressive stances on environment and equity, with over 43 visits to early primary areas in 2025.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, 43, offers a moderate, youthful appeal rooted in his 2020 run and veteran status. Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, 54, focuses on Rust Belt issues like infrastructure. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, 52, presents as a pragmatic option for battlegrounds.
Harris, 61, holds familiarity but contends with 2024 critiques. New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, 36, rallies progressives on economic justice. Maryland Governor Wes Moore, 47, brings a dynamic narrative as a relative newcomer.
Democratic Polls Highlight Division and Uncertainty
No candidate dominates Democratic surveys. A YouGov poll from September 12, 2025, has Newsom and Harris as leading choices among Democrats and leaners. A University of New Hampshire poll from October 27, 2025, shows Buttigieg at 23 percent, Newsom at 23 percent, and Ocasio-Cortez at 7 percent in New Hampshire, with Harris at 6 percent.
Aggregates place Newsom slightly ahead in weighted averages. A recent Politico poll reveals no clear party leader, with fragmented support underscoring rifts on policy directions like foreign aid and fiscal spending.
Paths to Victory Favor Republican Unity
Vance’s nomination prospects look robust, bolstered by his polling dominance and ties to recent successes. His platform, stressing trade protections for American workers and reduced foreign entanglements, could appeal broadly in a general election, particularly if economic challenges continue.
Democrats risk a prolonged primary that drains resources, with coastal figures like Newsom or Buttigieg potentially struggling in swing states, and progressives like Ocasio-Cortez facing moderate pushback. Harris’s potential return carries baggage from 2024.
Overall, a unified Republican Party appears poised to extend America First gains, with Vance’s energy and direct connection to the base providing an advantage. Events like policy shifts or unexpected developments could reshape the race before November 7, 2028.