Wyoming’s political landscape shifted dramatically last week when Senator Cynthia Lummis announced she would not seek a second term in 2026. The decision opens up a rare opportunity in one of the nation’s most reliably conservative states, where Republicans have held both Senate seats since 1977. With the election still nearly a year away, early maneuvering among potential successors highlights the emphasis on energy policy, fiscal conservatism, and border security that define Wyoming’s priorities.
The Announcement
On December 19, 2025, Lummis revealed her choice to step aside after serving one term, citing the demanding nature of the role. Elected in 2020 with over 73 percent of the vote, she has focused on advancing cryptocurrency regulations, protecting public lands for multiple uses, and supporting the state’s coal and oil industries. Her departure comes amid a wave of retirements in Congress, but in Wyoming, it sets the stage for a competitive Republican primary in a state where Donald Trump carried more than 70 percent of the vote in 2024.
Emerging Candidates
The race has drawn immediate interest from established figures, with two Republicans already declaring their candidacies. Reid Rasner, a businessman who ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2024, entered the fray early, emphasizing small-government principles and economic growth tied to Wyoming’s natural resources. Joining him is Jimmy Skovgard, a veteran of the Wyoming Army National Guard, who campaigns on national security and veterans’ issues, drawing on his military experience to appeal to the state’s patriotic base.
Republican Primary Contenders
Speculation centers on higher-profile entrants who could dominate the field. Harriet Hageman, Wyoming’s at-large U.S. Representative since 2023, is expected to announce her candidacy this week. Known for her decisive victory over former Representative Liz Cheney in the 2022 primary—winning by a margin of more than 37 points—Hageman has built a reputation as a staunch defender of America First policies. She has prioritized rolling back federal regulations on energy production, securing the southern border, and curbing government overreach, aligning closely with Wyoming’s ranchers, miners, and oil workers.
Governor Mark Gordon, in office since 2019, is also viewed as a potential candidate. With a background as state treasurer from 2012 to 2019, Gordon has managed Wyoming’s budget through energy market fluctuations, advocating for diversified revenue streams while protecting coal jobs. His term as governor ends in 2026 due to term limits, making a Senate bid a logical next step for the experienced executive.
Other names circulating include Secretary of State Chuck Gray, who has focused on election integrity reforms and explored higher office in polls conducted earlier in 2025. However, Gray appears more inclined toward a gubernatorial run, especially with the governor’s seat opening up.
Democratic Outlook
On the Democratic side, no candidates have declared as of December 22, 2025. Wyoming’s Democratic Party faces steep challenges in a state where Republicans hold supermajorities in the legislature and all statewide offices. The last Democrat to win a Senate seat here was in 1970, and recent elections have seen Democratic nominees garner less than 30 percent of the vote. Any contender would need to address rural economic concerns and energy transitions to make inroads, but the race remains solidly tilted toward Republicans.
Election Timeline
Wyoming’s primary elections are set for August 18, 2026, followed by the general election on November 3, 2026. Candidates must file by May 29, 2026, giving ample time for campaigns to ramp up. Fundraising reports as of September 30, 2025, show Rasner with limited resources after his previous run, while Lummis had amassed over $2.5 million before her retirement announcement.
Predictions for Succession
In a state as red as Wyoming—the least populous in the nation and one where Trump won by over 45 points in 2024—the next senator will almost certainly be a Republican committed to conservative values and energy independence. Hageman emerges as the frontrunner if she enters, given her proven appeal to grassroots voters and track record of defeating establishment figures. Her focus on America First priorities, including strong borders and domestic energy dominance, positions her well to carry forward Lummis’s legacy while energizing the base.
Should Gordon jump in, his executive experience could spark a spirited primary, pitting statewide leadership against congressional savvy. Regardless, the winner will inherit a safe seat, allowing Wyoming to continue punching above its weight in national debates on public lands, fiscal restraint, and countering federal mandates that threaten the state’s way of life. As campaigns unfold, expect a emphasis on protecting American sovereignty and prosperity in the face of global challenges.