Gavin Newsom struts around like he’s the golden boy who finally cracked the code on homelessness, bragging about a 9% drop in unsheltered vagrants in 2025 like it’s some kind of miracle. But peel back the layers on this slick San Francisco operator, and what do you find? A pile of half-truths, cherry-picked stats, and billions of your tax dollars flushed down the drain with nothing to show but more misery on the streets. California didn’t get fixed under this guy’s watch—it got worse, and now he’s spinning a yarn to cover his tracks before he bolts for that 2028 White House run. Let’s tear into the real numbers, because unlike Newsom, facts don’t get a haircut and a spray tan.
The Big Picture: Homelessness Exploded Under Newsom’s Reign
Newsom took office in 2019, back when California’s total homeless count stood at 151,278 souls scraping by on a single January night, according to the federal Point-in-Time (PIT) surveys. Fast forward through his tenure, and by 2024—that’s the last full count we’ve got—the number ballooned to 187,084. That’s a whopping 24% spike on his watch. Unsheltered folks, the ones crashing in tents, cars, or alleys? They jumped from about 108,000 in 2019 to 123,974 in 2024. Yeah, that’s progress if you’re in the tent manufacturing business.
Break it down year by year:
- 2019: 151,278 total, 108,432 unsheltered
- 2020: 161,548 total, 113,660 unsheltered (up 7%)
- 2022: 171,521 total, 115,491 unsheltered (up 6%)
- 2023: 181,399 total, 123,423 unsheltered (up 6%)
- 2024: 187,084 total, 123,974 unsheltered (up 3%)
Nationwide, homelessness rose 18% from 2023 to 2024, but California still owns 28% of the country’s total homeless population. We’re the kings of the cardboard castle, thanks to policies that prioritize feel-good fluff over real enforcement. Newsom loves to crow about bucking trends, but the only trend he’s bucked is fiscal sanity.
The 2025 “Miracle”: Preliminary Smoke and Mirrors
Here’s where Newsom’s tall tale kicks in. In his January 2026 State of the State swan song, he trumpeted a 9% drop in unsheltered homelessness for 2025, based on preliminary PIT data from regions that bothered to report early. He points to spots like Los Angeles (down 10.3%), Riverside (down 19%), and Contra Costa (down 34.8%) as proof his “investments are paying off.” Sounds great, right? Except it’s a classic con: Focus on the shiny unsheltered drop while ignoring the total picture.
Those prelims come from 29 out of California’s 44 Continuums of Care (CoCs)—that’s the local outfits tallying heads. In those areas, total homelessness dipped 4.3% to 131,209 from 137,119 in 2024. Unsheltered? Yeah, about a 9% slide. But that’s not the full state count—the official 2025 HUD report won’t drop until later this year. And even in these cherry-picked spots, sheltered numbers are up because they’re just shuffling folks into temporary beds, not solving the root mess.
Worse, some counties tell a different story. Santa Clara saw an 8.2% total jump to 10,711. San Bernardino’s 2025 prelims aren’t glowing either. Newsom’s “largest drop in 15-20 years” ignores that homelessness was already climbing before him and kept going up until this supposed turnaround. And bucking national trends? The nation saw unsheltered homelessness tick up slightly, but California’s “drop” is preliminary and partial. If the full 2025 count comes in flat or up, watch him pivot faster than a Sacramento lobbyist.
Billions Burned: The $24 Billion Black Hole
Newsom pats himself on the back for “overhauling” the system, but a 2024 state audit laid it bare: California torched $24 billion on homelessness from 2018 to 2023, and nobody can track if it did a damn thing. No consistent outcomes, no accountability—just a gravy train for bureaucrats and nonprofits. Programs like Project Homekey converted motels into housing, but the audit couldn’t even say if they reduced street sleeping. We’re talking zero metrics on whether that cash housed people long-term or just padded salaries.
Fast forward to 2025-2026: Newsom’s final budget axes ongoing grants for local shelters, potentially closing beds and spiking numbers again. He dangles $500 million more for his Homeless Housing, Assistance and Prevention program, but with “strings attached” like forcing encampment clearances. Great idea, except he’s the one who let the tents multiply in the first place. And that $24 billion? It could’ve handed every homeless person in 2024 about $128,000—enough for a fresh start if spent wisely. Instead, we got excuses.
Where the Lies Land: Cherry-Picking and Credit-Grabbing
Newsom’s not flat-out fabricating numbers—the prelims back his 9% unsheltered claim in reporting areas. But he’s lying by omission and exaggeration:
- Unsheltered vs. Total: He spotlights unsheltered drops while the overall homeless count rose relentlessly until maybe 2025. Shifting people to shelters isn’t “reducing” homelessness; it’s hiding it indoors temporarily.
- His “Accomplishments”: Claims credit for a potential 2025 dip after years of increases. Homelessness grew 24% since he started— that’s his legacy, not some late-game Hail Mary.
- Bucking Trends: Nationally, homelessness is up, but California’s share is still massive. His policies fueled the fire; now he’s acting like the fireman.
- Funding Fiascos: Boasts about investments paying off, but the audit screams otherwise. No tracking means no proof. And cutting future funds? That’s setting up the next spike.
California deserves better than this gel-haired glad-hander spinning failures as wins. If Newsom wants to play president, let him explain why his state leads the nation in street suffering. Time to clean house, enforce laws, and stop the socialist experiments that got us here. America First means no more Newsom nonsense.