Texas Senate Race Intensifies as Primaries Approach

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The 2026 Texas Senate race is shaping up as a pivotal contest, with a crowded Republican primary and a shifting Democratic field. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces strong challenges from within his party, while Democrats seek to capitalize on any GOP divisions. With primaries set for March 3, the race could influence control of the Senate, where Republicans currently hold a majority.

Republican Primary Heats Up

The Republican primary features a three-way battle among Senator John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Representative Wesley Hunt. Recent polling indicates a tight race likely headed for a runoff, as no candidate has secured a majority.

According to an Emerson College poll conducted January 10-12, Paxton leads with 27 percent support among likely Republican primary voters, followed closely by Cornyn at 26 percent and Hunt at 16 percent. Undecided voters make up 29 percent, with other candidates garnering 2 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

Earlier surveys showed Paxton with stronger leads, but the field has narrowed as Hunt gains traction. Prediction markets give Paxton a 68 percent chance of winning the primary, Cornyn 27 percent, and Hunt 6 percent. A runoff would occur if no candidate reaches 50 percent, potentially extending the contest into May.

Cornyn, seeking a fifth term, emphasizes his record on border security and conservative values. Paxton positions himself as a fighter against federal overreach, appealing to the party’s right wing. Hunt highlights his military background and focus on economic issues.

Democratic Field Shifts

On the Democratic side, state Representative James Talarico has surged ahead of U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett in recent polls.

In the same Emerson College poll, Talarico leads with 47 percent among likely Democratic primary voters, compared to Crockett’s 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.8 percentage points. This marks a reversal from a December 2025 poll where Crockett held an 8-point advantage.

Talarico, from Austin, campaigns on education and healthcare reforms. Crockett, from Dallas, focuses on criminal justice and civil rights. Prediction markets favor Talarico with a 67 percent chance of securing the nomination.

General Election Matchups Remain Competitive

Hypothetical general election polls suggest Republicans maintain an edge, but outcomes depend on the nominees.

According to the Emerson College poll, Cornyn leads Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent. Paxton ties both Democrats at 46 percent each. Hunt edges Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent and Crockett 48 percent to 43 percent.

Other surveys show similar trends, with Republicans generally ahead by single digits. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, but demographic shifts in urban areas could make the race closer if the GOP nominee faces vulnerabilities.

Fundraising Dynamics

Fundraising reports through September 30, 2025, show Cornyn leading with $8.9 million raised and $6 million cash on hand. Paxton has raised $4.2 million with $3.1 million on hand, while Hunt trails in disclosures.

Among Democrats, Talarico raised $6.2 million with $4.9 million cash on hand, outpacing Crockett. These figures indicate strong financial positions for frontrunners, with millions more expected as the primaries near.

Outlook for November

Race ratings classify Texas as likely Republican, reflecting the state’s conservative lean. However, a protracted GOP primary could drain resources and expose divisions, potentially benefiting Democrats in the general election on November 3.

With President Trump’s decision not to endorse in the primary, the race remains fluid. Turnout in the March primaries will be key, as early voting begins February 17. Texas voters prioritize border security, energy policy, and economic growth, issues that could decide the winner in this high-stakes contest.