The 2026 United States Senate election in Texas has descended into chaos, with a crowded Republican primary pitting the incumbent against high-profile challengers and a competitive Democratic contest between rising stars. With the March 3 primaries just a month away, the race for John Cornyn’s seat reflects broader tensions within both parties. Early voting begins February 17, and the outcomes could reshape the battle for Senate control in November.
Republican Primary: A Bitter Incumbent Challenge
John Cornyn, the incumbent senator seeking a fifth term, faces a formidable field of eight candidates. The primary has highlighted divisions in the Republican Party, with challengers accusing Cornyn of being insufficiently aligned with conservative priorities.
The main contenders are:
- John Cornyn, the sitting senator since 2002.
- Ken Paxton, the state attorney general known for aggressive legal actions against federal policies.
- Wesley Hunt, a Houston congressman and veteran who entered the race late but has raised significant funds.
Other candidates include Virgil Bierschwale, a software developer and perennial candidate; Sara Canady, a retired judge; Gulrez Khan; Anna Bender, an IT analyst; and John Adefope.
No candidate is expected to reach the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a May 26 runoff, given the split field.
Democratic Primary: A Clash of Styles
Democrats, aiming to break a 32-year statewide losing streak, have consolidated around three candidates after last-minute withdrawals. The primary features two prominent figures vying to capitalize on potential midterm backlash against the Trump administration.
The candidates are:
- Jasmine Crockett, a Dallas congresswoman recognized for her outspoken criticism of Republicans.
- James Talarico, an Austin state representative and former teacher with a strong social media presence.
- Ahmad Hassan, a businessman and former soccer professional.
Colin Allred, a former congressman, dropped out in December 2025 to run for a House seat, citing the crowded field.
With only three candidates, Democrats are likely to select a nominee outright on March 3.
Polling Shows Tight Races in Both Primaries
Recent surveys indicate neck-and-neck battles.
In the Republican primary, an Emerson College poll from January 10-12, 2026, of 550 likely voters shows Paxton at 27 percent, Cornyn at 26 percent, Hunt at 16 percent, and 31 percent undecided. A J.L. Partners poll from December 2025 had Paxton at 29 percent, Cornyn and Hunt tied at 24 percent each. Aggregates as of January 15, 2026, give Paxton a slim 0.3-point edge over Cornyn.
| Pollster | Date | Paxton | Cornyn | Hunt | Undecided/Other |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | Jan 10-12, 2026 | 27% | 26% | 16% | 31% |
| J.L. Partners | Dec 2025 | 29% | 24% | 24% | 23% |
| co/efficient | Dec 2025 | 27% | 28% | 19% | 26% |
On the Democratic side, the same Emerson poll has Talarico leading Crockett 47 percent to 38 percent, with 15 percent undecided. A Texas Public Opinion Research survey from January 14-21, 2026, of 1,290 likely voters shows Crockett ahead by one point, 38 percent to 37 percent, with 21 percent undecided.
Fundraising underscores the intensity: Talarico has raised over $13 million, Crockett $6.5 million, Cornyn $10 million, and Paxton lags but benefits from name recognition.
Recent Revelations Highlight GOP Vulnerabilities
A stunning upset in a January 31, 2026, special election runoff for Texas Senate District 9 has raised alarms. Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss 57 percent to 43 percent in a district Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. Low turnout—under 100,000 votes—and a split Republican field in the initial round contributed to the loss, which some view as a warning for November. Rehmet, a union leader and veteran, will face Wambsganss again in the general election for a full term, but the result signals potential Democratic gains in suburban areas.
This follows a pattern of Democratic overperformance in specials since Trump’s second term began, injecting urgency into Republican strategies.
November Outlook: A Republican Hold, But Closer Than Expected
Texas remains a red state, but shifting demographics and the special election suggest a competitive general. Hypothetical matchups from Emerson show Cornyn leading Talarico 47 percent to 44 percent, while Paxton ties Talarico at 46 percent each. Hunt edges both Democrats by similar margins.
If Paxton emerges from a runoff, his legal baggage—including a recent divorce tied to an affair—could alienate moderates in a growing state. Cornyn, seen as the strongest general-election candidate, benefits from national GOP support, but the primary infighting risks voter fatigue.
Democrats hope to exploit midterm dynamics, with Crockett appealing to the base through Trump critiques and Talarico emphasizing faith and bipartisanship. Yet, Republicans hold advantages in turnout and resources, with the seat rated as Likely Republican as of January 12, 2026.
The November 3 election could hinge on primary winners and national trends, potentially deciding Senate control amid a challenging map for Republicans.