The Iranian Bombing – Through the eyes of one commentator

Leave a CommentThe Iranian Bombing – Through the eyes of one commentatorCommentary

I’ve been watching the events in the Middle East unfold through this commentator’s eyes as he seems exceptionally cognizant of the wider implications of Israel’s bombing of Iran and the Iranian knee-jerk reaction to fire off missiles in the general direction of America’s allies and bases in the region. This measure appears to have been ineffectual, current reports suggest just one death—in Abu Dhabi—as a result of these efforts.

His name is Shanaka Anslem Perera and he posts as @shanaka86.

Starting from his pivotal thread on the USS Gerald R. Ford’s positioning (February 27, 13:52 GMT), Shanaka Anslem Perera’s analysis shifts from buildup signals to real-time escalation, framing the crisis as a meticulously architected path to conflict. His insights cut through the fog of war with sharp geopolitical reasoning, highlighting strategic asymmetries, isolation tactics, and unintended coalitions—often more prescient than mainstream intel briefs. This summary groups posts by day for clarity, emphasizing key narratives, military logic, and broader implications, while noting his provocative conclusions on power dynamics.

February 27: Final Positioning and Diplomatic Collapse (Buildup to “Hours Away”)

Posts ramp up from carrier doctrine to evacuation urgency, portraying a countdown where military assets lock into offensive/defensive roles, evacuations signal imminent action, and diplomacy falters.

13:52 GMT (Ford Positioning Thread): Frames the Ford off Haifa as a deliberate “tripwire” for escalation insurance, splitting U.S. carrier doctrine into offense (Lincoln near Iran) and defense (Ford shielding Israel). Insight: This isn’t deterrence—it’s engineered to make Iranian retaliation an automatic U.S. casus belli, forcing full engagement without political debate. Implication: Positions ensure any conflict escalates on U.S. terms, unseen since WWII.

13:41 GMT (24-Hour Surge Thread): Details rapid developments like Ford’s arrival, F-22 hot-launch at Ovda, embassy evacuations in Baghdad/Jerusalem, Israeli bomb shelters opening, Al-Udeid tanker dispersal, and 37 jets at RAF Lakenheath. Insight: This isn’t buildup; it’s “final positioning” for a 72-hour campaign. Implication: Clock shifts from days to hours, with logistics feeding a machine for weeks-long ops.

12:32 GMT (Friday Prayers Rejection Thread): Analyzes Ayatollah Khatami’s sermon declaring enrichment non-negotiable as regime policy via divine fiat, rejecting even Iran’s own compromises. Insight: Turns diplomacy into a religious covenant, making zero-enrichment impossible without internal collapse. Implication: Locks Iran’s door, forcing U.S. to act; paired with six nations’ evacuations, signals infinite gap between positions.

11:00 GMT (Mass Evacuations Thread): Highlights China (arming Iran yet evacuating citizens), U.S. (Huckabee urging staff out of Israel), Canada, India, Germany, and Beirut embassy moves—all on one day. Insight: Classified briefs drive synchronized exits; China’s advisory implies knowledge of when its sold weapons will be used. Implication: Evacuations aren’t precautionary—they’re blast-radius clearance, with China treating Iran as a battlefield lab.

10:46 GMT (Huckabee Email Thread): Breaks Huckabee’s 10:24 AM email urging immediate departure from Israel via “any available flight.” Insight: Second-to-last escalation step; sequence (negotiate Wed, reload Thu, evacuate Fri) is a visible countdown. Implication: “Sooner rather than later” hints at known airspace closure window; Vienna talks irrelevant if today’s actions prelude war.

07:45 GMT (Russia/China Arming Leak Thread): Reveals Russia leaking U.S. strike plans (Feb 20) and selling Verba air defenses (€500M, Dec 2025); China nearing CM-302 anti-ship missiles while publishing U.S. asset imagery. Insight: No alliance, but convergent actions instrument Iran to bleed U.S. munitions without winning. Implication: Optimal for Moscow/Beijing: America wins expensively, depleting stockpiles for Taiwan/Venezuela contingencies.

Overall Feb 27 Insight: A masterclass in pre-war architecture—military (SEAD corridors, munitions math), diplomatic (Geneva as historical predicate), and adversarial (Russia/China ensuring high costs). Shanaka’s take: Hesitation between U.S./Israel on who strikes first is the wild card; evacuations confirm intel consensus on timing.

Trump takes to the podium in the early hours

February 28: Strikes, Retaliation, and Isolation (Real-Time War Commentary)

Activity explodes with Israeli daylight strikes on Tehran, Iranian missile barrage, and U.S. phase activation. Posts dissect “decapitation” ops, backfiring responses, and regime chaos, positioning this as Iran’s self-inflicted coalition-building disaster.

02:18 GMT (“I’d Love Not To” Thread): Ties Trump’s conditional strike statement to Rubio’s “wrongful detention” designation, mass evacuations, and military signals. Insight: Legal/political framework forecloses negotiation; “sometimes you have to” narrates failed diplomacy. Implication: Omani channel irrelevant—Rubio’s Jerusalem trip (Mar 2) aligns with final buildup.

10:43 GMT (Missile Retaliation Thread): Details Iranian missiles hitting/intercepted over Bahrain, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Jordan (one civilian dead in Abu Dhabi); Saudi claims unconfirmed. Insight: Demonstrates range but not precision; attacks neutrals, converting them to co-belligerents. Implication: Asymmetry—Israel hits precisely; Iran builds anti-Iran coalition, exposing weakness.

10:56 GMT (Saudi Pledge Thread): Notes Saudi shift from neutrality (Jan promise) to pledging “all capabilities” post-missile violations. Insight: Iran turned mediators into adversaries; coalition forms organically. Implication: Détente erased—Gulf states justify retaliation, isolating Iran faster than diplomacy could.

11:00 GMT (Decapitation Impact Thread): Speculates strikes hit Khamenei’s meeting, eroding command trust; silence implies deaths. Insight: Not brute force like June 2025—scalpel destroys cohesion; Iran fires at six nations, most intercepted. Implication: Checkmate—permanent damage to regime, proxies degraded (Hezbollah at 20% arsenal).

06:59 GMT (Strikes Begin Thread): Announces Israeli preemptive strikes on Tehran/Isfahan/Qom at 8:15 AM local, targeting leadership meeting (Khamenei/Pezeshkian/IRGC). Insight: Daylight breaks patterns; intel-driven “decapitation” destroys trust within regime. Implication: Preceded by visible signals (empty Al-Udeid, F-22s, evacuations); shifts question to Iran’s depleted response.

12:40 GMT (Debris Video Thread): Shares footage of missile debris in Doha; expands on strikes’ precision vs. Iran’s scattershot. Insight: Iran hit one civilian with debris; regime now questions every meeting for leaks. Implication: Proxies frozen in June—now weaker; next 72 hours defined by Gulf decisions.

12:51 GMT (Doha Explosion Video Thread): More debris footage; ties to broader chaos. Insight: Reiterates strategic catastrophe—Iran’s salvo builds enemies. Implication: Coalition statements incoming; airspace coordination likely.

13:10 GMT (Debris Label Thread): Notes “Made in Germany” on UAE debris—queries indirect tech transfer. Insight: Minor, but highlights supply chains in hybrid warfare. Implication: Adds layer to isolation—potential European involvement.

13:32 GMT (Dubai Explosions Thread): Reports five blasts near Jebel Ali, one Abu Dhabi death; UAE confirms intercepts. Insight: Iran struck economic hubs without U.S. bases; closes airports, grounding global aviation. Implication: UAE’s math: costs exceed trade—neutrality impossible, response disproportionate.

13:45 GMT (24-Hour Expansion Thread): Overviews strikes on seven Iranian sites, retaliation hitting six nations; Saudi pledges support. Insight: Decapitation op timed to meeting; Russia/China condemn but inactive—press releases, not action. Implication: Iran’s isolation architecture: attacked mediators, exhausted missiles, allies passive—war 24 hours old, already alone.

13:54 GMT (Dubai Tourism Video Thread): Video of beach intercepts; dubs it “tourism brochure burning.” Insight: Dubai’s safety brand shattered—$2K/night hotels now war zones. Implication: Economic engine halted; ripple to global connectivity.

14:39 GMT (U.S. Hammer Phase Thread): Outlines sequenced activation: F-22 suppression (done), Ford tripwire, Lincoln strikes, Wild Weasels/B-2s for Fordow; 113 fighters staging. Insight: Israel was scalpel—U.S. is hammer; B-2s fly global without bases. Implication: UK denials irrelevant; logistics sustain weeks—next 24 hours U.S.-led.

14:47 GMT (Khamenei Killed Assessment Thread): Cites Channel 12 intel—Khamenei killed via HUMINT (same sources timed strike). Insight: Araghchi’s hedge (“as far as I know”), no proof-of-life, preemptive Israeli discrediting; silence confirms. Implication: 35-year rule ends—nuclear architect gone; command vacuum paralyzes escalation decisions.

Overall Feb 28 Insight: Real-time dissection of a cascading disaster for Iran—precision decapitation breeds paranoia, retaliation expands enemies (7 to 12 nations), intercepts expose impotence. Shanaka’s take: Iran’s isolation is self-built; U.S. phases guarantee hammer follows scalpel, with allies passive and Gulf unified against Tehran.