Voters in Texas’ 2nd Congressional District delivered a decisive rebuke to incumbent Rep. Dan Crenshaw on March 3, 2026, choosing state Rep. Steve Toth as the Republican nominee for the safely conservative seat.
With 95 percent of votes counted, Toth secured 55.8 percent to Crenshaw’s 40.6 percent. Minor candidates Martin Etwop and N. Plumb split the remaining roughly 3.5 percent. The outcome ends Crenshaw’s bid for a fifth term after winning the seat in 2018 as a former Navy SEAL.
Newly Drawn District Favors Local Conservative
The redrawn 2nd District stretches across parts of Harris and Montgomery counties, taking in suburban strongholds such as The Woodlands, Kingwood, Atascocita, Humble, and Spring. Under the new lines, the district gave President Trump a 23-point margin in the last presidential cycle. Many new voters in the reconfigured map viewed Toth, a longtime state legislator from the area and owner of a local pool service company, as the more familiar and consistent voice for their priorities.
Foreign Policy Divide Fuels Voter Backlash
Crenshaw’s steadfast support for billions in aid to Ukraine emerged as a central point of contention. While many in the district focused on border security and domestic spending, Crenshaw repeatedly defended large-scale assistance to Kyiv even as concerns mounted over endless foreign commitments. Toth hammered the issue throughout the campaign, arguing for an America First approach that puts U.S. resources first.
Absence of Trump Backing Proves Costly
Crenshaw entered the primary as the only House Republican from Texas without President Trump’s endorsement. Trump backed every other GOP incumbent seeking reelection in the state’s March 3 contests. The omission left Crenshaw exposed in a cycle where the president’s seal of approval carried heavy weight among primary voters demanding alignment with the national agenda.
Feud with Ted Cruz Escalates
Tensions between Crenshaw and Sen. Ted Cruz reached a boiling point in the final weeks. Cruz endorsed Toth and cut an ad for the challenger, telling voters the district deserved “an unwavering fighter.” The two Texans had a pointed exchange at an airport, with Crenshaw accusing Cruz of working against him and Cruz replying that any such effort would be unmistakable. Earlier friction included Crenshaw’s role in blocking a Cruz-backed aviation safety measure following a deadly plane crash.
Long-Simmering Rift with Conservative Base
Crenshaw’s history of sharp exchanges with prominent conservatives added to his vulnerabilities. In January 2023, during the prolonged House speaker fight, he labeled Republicans holding out against Kevin McCarthy as “terrorists” and declared them “enemies now.” The remarks, later walked back, alienated hard-line conservatives who saw them as an attack on those demanding real concessions.
Conservative media voices, including Tucker Carlson, repeatedly spotlighted Crenshaw’s Ukraine stance and perceived distance from core Trump priorities. Crenshaw himself acknowledged in the campaign’s closing days that figures such as Carlson and Cruz had come out “with their knives,” framing the opposition as personal rather than policy-driven.
Spending Edge Fails to Save Incumbent
Crenshaw held a clear financial advantage, outraising Toth by more than $1.3 million in 2025 and deploying heavy television advertising that portrayed him as aligned with Trump. Pro-Crenshaw efforts included more than $1 million in outside spending. Toth, operating on a leaner budget, relied on grassroots momentum and his record of conservative votes in the Texas House, including early stands against COVID lockdowns.
Legislative Record Becomes Campaign Battleground
Toth repeatedly contrasted his dozen-plus bills passed in Austin with Crenshaw’s congressional tenure, noting the incumbent had not passed a standalone bill in more than seven years in Washington. Crenshaw countered by highlighting federal flood mitigation funds he helped direct to the district and efforts on border-related legislation, but the attacks on effectiveness resonated with voters frustrated by gridlock in the nation’s capital.
What the Defeat Reveals
The results mark the first time a Texas House Republican incumbent has lost a primary since 2014. In a district engineered to protect conservative values, voters chose the challenger who promised no compromise on America First principles over an incumbent seen as too willing to engage in foreign entanglements and internal party skirmishes.
Crenshaw’s ouster sends a clear message heading into the rest of the 2026 cycle: alignment with domestic priorities, border security, and the Trump agenda carries more weight than past service or fundraising totals. Toth now advances as the presumptive general-election favorite in November.