Michigan’s open Senate seat in 2026 shapes up as a pivotal contest in a state that has swung between parties in recent cycles. With Republicans holding a 53-47 majority in the Senate following the 2024 elections, capturing this seat would bolster efforts to advance an America First agenda focused on revitalizing manufacturing, securing borders, and promoting energy independence. The race comes amid economic pressures in the industrial heartland, where voters prioritize job creation and cost-of-living relief over expansive government programs.
The Incumbent’s Exit
Gary Peters, the Democratic senator who has held the seat since 2015, announced on January 28, 2025, that he would not seek a third term. Peters, who narrowly won re-election in 2020 with 49.9 percent of the vote against Republican challenger John James, cited a desire to conclude his chapter in public service after two Senate terms and three in the House. His departure leaves Democrats defending an open seat in a state Donald Trump carried in the 2024 presidential election by a margin of 49.7 percent to 48.3 percent. Michigan has not elected a Republican senator since 1994, but recent shifts suggest vulnerability for Democrats in midterm cycles.
Democratic Contenders
The Democratic primary features a competitive field, with candidates emphasizing progressive priorities like healthcare expansion and environmental regulations. Haley Stevens, a U.S. representative from Oakland County first elected in 2018, announced her candidacy on April 22, 2025. She has raised $4,720,076 as of September 30, 2025, with $2,617,801 cash on hand, including $1.5 million transferred from her House campaign.
Mallory McMorrow, a state senator known for viral speeches, entered the race on April 2, 2025. She has raised $3,854,834, with $1,453,817 cash on hand. Abdul El-Sayed, a physician and former public health official, launched his bid on April 17, 2025, raising $3,573,182 and holding $1,844,276 cash on hand. Lesser-known candidate Rachel Howard, a veteran and social worker, has raised $10,937.
Former state House Speaker Joe Tate withdrew on August 8, 2025, and endorsed Stevens on August 25, 2025. Pete Buttigieg, the former transportation secretary who relocated to Michigan, declined to run on March 13, 2025. Attorney General Dana Nessel has not ruled out a bid as of July 16, 2025.
Republican Challengers
On the Republican side, Mike Rogers, a former U.S. representative and FBI agent who narrowly lost the 2024 Senate race to Elissa Slotkin by 0.3 percentage points, announced his candidacy on April 14, 2025. Rogers has raised $3,413,832, with $2,701,624 cash on hand, positioning him as the frontrunner. He secured Donald Trump’s endorsement on July 24, 2025, which could energize the base in a state where America First policies resonate with working-class voters.
Other declared Republicans include Fred Heurtebise, who raised $10,059 but has no cash on hand, and Genevieve Scott, with $35,544 raised and $4,908 cash on hand. Tudor Dixon, the 2022 gubernatorial nominee, opted out on July 9, 2025. U.S. Representative Bill Huizenga announced on July 23, 2025, that he would not run after family discussions.
Key Issues in Michigan
Michigan voters face challenges that align with national America First concerns. The auto industry’s transition to electric vehicles, mandated by federal policies, has sparked backlash amid job losses and reliance on Chinese supply chains. Inflation remains a top worry, with grocery and energy costs straining families. Border security and immigration are prominent, as Michigan grapples with increased migrant flows impacting local resources.
Economic revitalization through tariffs on foreign imports and incentives for domestic manufacturing could appeal to the state’s industrial base. Crime in urban areas like Detroit and opposition to expansive social programs further highlight divides, with Republicans advocating for law enforcement support and fiscal restraint.
Early Polling Data
Early polls indicate a tight general election. A Normington Petts poll from June 12 to 16, 2025, showed Rogers at 48 percent against McMorrow’s 44 percent, and Stevens at 47 percent against Rogers’ 45 percent. A Glengariff Group poll from May 5 to 8, 2025, had Stevens leading Rogers 45 percent to 44 percent, but Rogers ahead of El-Sayed 47 percent to 41 percent and McMorrow 46 percent to 42 percent.
A Target Insyght poll from March 3 to 6, 2025, gave Rogers a 44 percent to 46 percent edge over Buttigieg before his withdrawal. In the Democratic primary, a Glengariff Group poll from May 5 to 8, 2025, showed Stevens at 34 percent, El-Sayed at 22 percent, and McMorrow at 11 percent, with 33 percent undecided. An NRSC poll from July 4 to 7, 2025, had Stevens at 24 percent, El-Sayed at 15 percent, and McMorrow at 20 percent, with 41 percent undecided.
In the Republican primary, a Glengariff Group poll from May 5 to 8, 2025, placed Rogers at 61 percent.
The Path Ahead
With primaries set for August 4, 2026, and the general election on November 3, 2026, the race remains fluid. Republicans benefit from a favorable midterm map and Trump’s 2024 victory in Michigan, potentially driving turnout for policies emphasizing American jobs and security. Democrats must unify behind a candidate capable of holding suburban and urban voters while countering economic discontent. As fundraising and endorsements accelerate, this contest could determine Senate control and influence national priorities.