Climate scientists have dropped their most alarming long-term predictions in a major update.
The most important post ever at THB?
— The Honest Broker (@RogerPielkeJr) April 29, 2026
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The Old Extreme Warnings
For years, many reports and headlines relied on “worst-case” scenarios. These assumed the world would burn huge amounts of fossil fuels forever with little to no action on climate change, leading to very rapid and dangerous global warming.
The Big Update
The official international team that creates scenarios for major climate reports has now eliminated those extreme pathways. Their new highest forecast shows noticeably less warming by the end of the century than the old versions. This better matches today’s real-world trends, like cheaper renewable energy and existing climate policies.
Why It Matters
Thousands of studies, news stories, and government plans were based on those over-the-top forecasts. This change makes future global warming projections more realistic and less scary, though work remains to refine the middle-range estimates.
Read the full article mentioned above, here: https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/rcp85-is-officially-dead