By James P. Farwell, May 19, 2026
Japan is proactively countering the strategic threat posed by China to both itself and its closest regional allies including the U.S.. In recent days, senior politicians including Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Defense Minister ShinjirōKoizumi have embarked on missions across the Indo-Pacific to pitch stability during turbulent times.
The visits have been far from routine and signify instead Japan’s recognition of the threats and its willingness to be a critical security partner alongside the U.S..
Ahead of President Trump’s arrival in China, the Trump administration has dispatched Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to Tokyo for a series of economic meetings this week in a move which offers reassurance to Japan ahead of such a pivotal meeting in Beijing.
These acts of diplomacy have been propelled by a major domestic shift in defense policy announced in April which saw Japan overhaul restrictions on defense equipment exports so that it can now sell lethal weapons to allies.
Visiting the Philippines and Indonesia last week, Koizumi looked to take advantage of this new approach to bolster regional security more efficiently, something Washington has amplified the need for. In Australia and Vietnam, Takaichi reaffirmed Japanese economic and military support and its more proactive role in upholding a free and open Indo-Pacific. This is emblematic of a wholesale geopolitical reawakening.
Tokyo is firmly committed to military modernization to deter Chinese adventurism. The Chinese threat is manifest in its escalating activity in growing alliance with Russia and North Korea, heightening tensions over Taiwan and operations around the disputed Senkaku Islands. Last year, Chinese coast guard ships were spotted near the Islands a record 375 days.
Near collisions between Chinese fighter jets flying too close to Japanese intelligence-gathering aircraft have sparked other concerns. Beijing dismissed protests, asserting that the Japanese aircraft were carrying out spying missions. It also warned Japan to avoid interfering in any Chinese military action against Taiwan.
The threat did not cower Tokyo, which doubled down on Japan’s support for Taiwan in accordance with national legislation which authorizes the deployment of Japanese forces to address a “survival-threatening situation,” which poses an existential danger to Japan or its allies.
Underscoring how seriously Japan views the emerging security environment, Japan has released a Defense of Japan 2025 white paper that labels China and its allies – dubbed the CRINK bloc – the “greatest strategic challenge” to Japan. Although some Japanese are wary of defense build-ups, Takaichi’s decisive election victory in February has provided a popular mandate for a stronger stance against China.
In 2026, defense expenditure will hit a record $58 billion. Japan has embraced a notion of the “southern shield,” entailing the deployment of weapons platforms to create anti-access, anti-denial layers along the First Island Chain to complicate Chinese operations near Taiwan or in the East China Sea.
The Japan 2022 security strategy was accelerated in a 2023-2027 buildup plan that doubles defense spending, and focuses on long-range missiles, F-35 fighters, and unmanned systems. Critical in this picture is Japan’s rapidly developing defense industry that is producing its own warships and missiles, and flexible new rules that allow Japan to export weapons.
It has equipped its destroyers with Tomahawk launch capabilities and signed a contract to build 11 Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. These developments mark strategic opportunity for the Japanese-U.S. partnership, especially if combined with closer alliances with other regional partners.
Japanese concerns around China are compounded by anxieties over the unclear U.S. posture towards allies, which is prompting Tokyo’s defense planners to contemplate scenarios in which they fight alone. The shift by the U.S. of defense assets from Asia to support operations against Iran heightens that concern.
Yet Japan’s emerging security posture resonates with the U.S., which favors burden-sharing. Its vision for a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP), first developed over 10 years ago, outlines the importance of collective security and the rule of law in maintaining stability in the Indo-Pacific, values that align closely with Washington’s strategic interests.
Japan’s FOIP vision represents an opportunity for the U.S., and progress is evident in prudent steps underway in setting up a Joint Force Headquarters and strengthening command and control structures. Exercise Sea Dragon in 2026 with India, Australia, and New Zealand, and Exercise Malabar with South Korea, India, and Australia, focusing on submarine warfare training, represent major commitments to stronger relations among these nations.
For its part, the U.S. has released updated National Security and National Defense documents, and President Trump has called for a 50% increase in defense spending in 2027 to meet what he called “trouble and dangerous times.”
Cutting across these considerations, Japan has a highly capable, technologically advanced military that may prove pivotal to deterrence and thus provides a persuasive incentive to other countries to join an alliance. A coalition of partners offers the strongest counter to Chinese expansionism, which should be viewed in the context of China’s ambition to establish global economic supremacy that relegates other nations to the role of tributaries.
The U.S. should recognize Japan’s key role in forging a coalition that deters Chinese adventurism and that can checkmate its military should conflict erupt. Japan is not merely a strong ally. It is an essential one.
James P. Farwell, the strategic communication expert who has advised the Department of Defense (now War), U.S. Special Operations Command, and U.S. Strategic Command on the Middle East, Africa, and Pakistan.
This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.
