Trump’s Primary Avalanche: Endorsed Candidates Crush and Shred Popularity Polls

In a series of Republican primaries held Tuesday across Kentucky, Georgia, Alabama and other states, candidates backed by President Donald Trump secured a string of victories, including several notable upsets of incumbent lawmakers and party figures who had clashed with the president.

The results underscored the continued influence of Trump’s endorsement among GOP primary voters, even as national polls have shown his approval ratings hovering in the low 30s in recent weeks.

Kentucky

The most closely watched contest came in Kentucky’s 4th Congressional District, where Trump-endorsed challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL, defeated longtime incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie by approximately 10 percentage points. Massie, a frequent critic of Trump on issues including federal spending and foreign policy, had drawn the president’s ire for years.

Trump also claimed victories with endorsed incumbents, including Reps. Hal Rogers, Brett Guthrie and James Comer. In the high-profile Senate race to replace retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell, Trump-backed Rep. Andy Barr won the Republican nomination and enters the general election as the heavy favorite.

Georgia

Trump-endorsed Lt. Gov. Burt Jones advanced to a runoff in the gubernatorial race. Several Trump-aligned candidates in congressional and statewide contests also prevailed or performed strongly, while Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who has had a contentious relationship with the president since 2020, failed to advance.

Alabama and Beyond

In Alabama’s crowded Senate primary for the seat held by Sen. Tommy Tuberville, Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore took the lead but will face a runoff. Additional endorsed candidates recorded solid showings across the state’s ballot.

Strong performances by Trump-backed contenders were also reported in Pennsylvania and other states holding primaries or portions of primaries on Tuesday. Overall, Trump’s endorsed candidates posted a robust winning record in contested races, particularly those targeting incumbents viewed as insufficiently loyal.

While Trump’s broader endorsement success rate this cycle stands near 52 percent across hundreds of races, his picks have performed especially well in high-visibility contests aimed at enforcing party discipline.

Analysts noted that the strength of these results, particularly the defeat of sitting members of Congress, highlights the weight Trump’s support continues to carry with Republican primary voters — the party’s most engaged base. The outcome raises questions about whether public polling accurately reflects the intensity of support within the GOP electorate, where Trump-aligned candidates have repeatedly outperformed expectations set by surveys showing the president’s approval in the vicinity of 30 percent.