Elon just gave an interview. It’s very, very interesting

Leave a CommentElon just gave an interview. It’s very, very interestingCommentary, Innovation, MedTech, Power, Technology, Transport

Summary of Elon Musk’s 44 minute interview at the @allinsummit:

Government:

  • Elon hasn’t been back to DC since May, “The Government is basically unfixable.”
  • “If AI & Robots don’t solve the National Debt, we’re toast.”

Optimus:

  • Tesla is finalizing the design of Optimus Gen 3. “It’s going to be a very remarkable robot.”
  • Optimus Gen 3 will have the manual dexterity of a human.
  • Optimus Gen 3 will have an AI mind that can navigate, and comprehend reality.
  • There is no supply chain for humanoid robots, Tesla is making everything from scratch. It requires a lot of vertical integration.
  • All of Optimus’ actuators are made in-house by Tesla. There are 26 actuators, per arm.
  • Elon reiterates: “If Optimus is successful, it will be the biggest product, ever.”
  • Production Cost of Optimus, once 1M units/year are achieved is around the $20,000 range.
  • The AI chip for Optimus will be expensive, potentially $5-6K , maybe more.
  • Price of Optimus will be a function of demand.
  • Tesla had to design Optimus’ every electric motor, gearbox, and the controlling electronics from scratch.
  • Creating Optimus is harder than making Model S/3/X/Y/CT, but not harder than Starship.
  • The forearms and hands of Optimus are majoirty of engineering difficulties of the entire robot.
  • Optimus LLM will be included, no added subscription.

AI4, AI5, AI6 & FSD:

  • Tesla is currently finalizing the design for AI5. It will be an immense jump from AI4.
  • AI5 will be 40x better than AI4 in some metrics.
  • Tesla is working so closely on the AI Hardware, and Software this time around. Both teams are co-designing the chip.
  • AI5 has 8x more commute than AI4.
  • AI5 has 10x more memory than AI4.
  • AI5 has 5x more memory-bandwidth than AI4.
  • Elon is confident AI4 chips will still be able to achieve self-driving safety that is at least 2-3x of a human, maybe even 10x.
  • FSD 14 will be released in a few months.
  • V14 will be the biggest upgrade to Tesla’s software since V12.
  • FSD 14 will make the car feel sentient, by the end of the year.

Starlink:

  • New spectrum deal will allow SpaceX to deliver high-bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites, to the phone.
  • Current frequencies aren’t supported in current phones. Hardware changes are needed.
  • Chipsets need to be modified to add the new frequencies.
  • The phones capable of using this new frequency will ship in two years.
  • You will be able to watch videos anywhere in the world.
  • These frequencies required will work inside a building, it won’t cut off.
  • You will be able to have a Starlink Account instead of a Verizon/At&T account, but it won’t put other carriers out of business.
  • SpaceX may buy carriers to gain more spectrum. “It’s not out the question, it may happen.”

Starship:

  • SpaceX will recover Starship starting next year.
  • There is only one V2 Starship left.
  • V3 is a radical re-design, initially it might go through some teething pains.
  • V3 is capable of over 100T to orbit, fully reusable.
  • Starting in 2026, SpaceX will demonstrate fully reusability next year, catching both booster and ship.
  • Elon thinks a self-sustaining life on Mars can be achieved within roughly 25 years.

AI:

  • A rough rule of thumb is 10x more compute will double the intelligence.
  • Elon thinks we will continue to see intelligence scale all the way up to where most of the power of the sun is harnessed for compute.
  • Human Intelligence is currently plateauing due to low birth-rates and population declines. It will eventually start declining.
  • Elon guesses AI will be smarter than absolutely everything starting next year.
  • By 2030, Elon guesses AI will be smarter than the sum of ALL humans.