New confirmation that climate models overstate atmospheric warming

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    Judith Curry is one of the world’s premier climate scientists. Naturally, as she thinks that the science is overblown, faulty and politically motivated she has been marginalized and driven from her job as a professor.

    She has published a troubling paper on her blog that confirms the climate models (remember data aren’t enough – the Climate Change Warriors like to manipulate stats to scare us and keep us on course for the leftist hell promised in the United Nations’ Agenda 30, formerly Agenda 21).

    Guest writer, Ross McKitrick reports that two new peer-reviewed papers from independent teams confirm that climate models overstate atmospheric warming and the problem has gotten worse over time, not better.

    As he says:

    rather than fixing it since then, modelers have made it worse. Mitchell et al. note that in addition to the wrong warming trends themselves, the biases have broader implications because “atmospheric circulation trends depend on latitudinal temperature gradients.” In other words when the models get the tropical troposphere wrong, it drives potential errors in many other features of the model atmosphere. Even if the original problem was confined to excess warming in the tropical mid-troposphere, it has now expanded into a more pervasive warm bias throughout the global troposphere.

    If the discrepancies in the troposphere were evenly split across models between excess warming and cooling we could chalk it up to noise and uncertainty. But that is not the case: it’s all excess warming… …That’s bias, not uncertainty, and until the modeling community finds a way to fix it, the economics and policy making communities are justified in assuming future warming projections are overstated, potentially by a great deal depending on the model.