A pattern has begun to emerge according to the Cook Political Report: in surveys by both parties, House Democrats’ polling numbers are holding up surprisingly well in states with contentious statewide races driving turnout like Arizona, Kansas, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania to name a few.
Meanwhile, Republicans are encouraged by House numbers they’re seeing in blue-dominated states, including New York, Oregon and even Rhode Island.
This week, seven of our (CPR) ten rating changes favor Democrats, including Rep. Susan Wild (PA-07) from Lean Republican to Toss Up and Reps. Dan Kildee (MI-08) and Steven Horsford (NV-04) from Toss Up to Lean Democrat.
However, the Rio Grande Valley of Texas remains a trouble spot for Democrats: both parties now believe the open 15th CD will flip red and that Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez is at high risk in the new 34th CD.
Historically, it’s rare that so many race ratings shift towards the president’s party in a midterm year. But, keep in mind: because of redistricting, we didn’t issue initial ratings for most seats until President Biden and Democrats were at something of a low point.
If you’re a political junkie you’ll love 270 to Win where you can play with the simulation outcomes until you’re blue in the face. ,
Meanwhile over at Gallup, they ask respondents what is their biggest problem right now and then follow up with the question, which party do you think can do a better job of handling that problem? (It’s interesting and it goes back to 1945.)
In great news for the Republicans, the findings from Gallup’s latest data shows that 48% of Americans believe the Republican Party is best equipped, while 37% believe it is the Democratic Party.