Voter Numbers and New Polling Suggest This Key State Could Flip in 2024

Pennsylvania is one state that could be flipping back into Republican control in 2024 if voter registration numbers and new polling have anything to say about it. 

According to numbers from the Pennsylvania Department of State, the state has grown redder in the past year. In 2023 alone, twice as many Democrats have switched to the Republican Party as Republicans have switched to the Democratic party, indicating that Pennsylvania could swing back into GOP control. 

On top of that, for the first time since 2015, Trump is seen beating Biden in a high quality poll from Quinnipiac. 

The presidential race in Pennsylvania was an extremely contentious one in 2020, with Joe Biden eking out a narrow victory over Trump by a 1.17% margin, after Trump won the state in 2016.  However, the pandemic and “vote by mail” initiatives may have played a role in how the Pennsylvania election played out last presidential election. 

Now, the worsening Biden economy and the Administration’s continued neglect of the working class have created a harrowing environment that could push Pennsylvania even further into the Republican camp. 

The Department of State shows 11,000 Republicans changed registration to Democrat in 2023, but twice as many Democrats, 23,000, switched their registration to Republican in the past year. This puts the Democratic lead over Republicans in Pennsylvania down to 450 thousand votes, down from 700 thousand in 2020, and 900 thousand in 2016. 

Polling is looking favorable for Trump in the Keystone State as well, with a June 2023 Quinnipiac poll carrying an early warning sign for Democrats. Trump was up on Biden by 1 point – within the margin of error – but nonetheless this is only the second time since 2015 when Trump has come out ahead of either Biden or Clinton in polling. 

The Quinnipiac poll shows Trump beating Biden 47% to 46%, and carrying Independents by 14 percentage points, 51% to 37%. 

The Biden economy is absolutely driving this sentiment, with 30% of Pennsylvanians saying the economy is the most important issue, followed by 28% saying preserving Democracy and 9% saying gun violence, while 7% say immigration. 

For Republicans and Independents, the economy is by far the most important issue with 47% of Republicans and 36% of Independents agreeing, while preserving democracy is the most important issue for Democrats (34%) followed by gun violence (18%) and abortion (13%). 

This is more evidence of a strong class divide in Pennsylvania, considering the economy doesn’t even rank in the top three priorities for Democrats, but is the number one issue for both Republicans and Independents by several points.  

What is more, President Biden’s disapproval rating has reached nearly 60% in the state, with the Quinnipiac poll showing voters give Biden a negative 39 – 57 percent approval rating. 

Pennsylvanians are unimpressed by the globalist cabal’s attempt to take down Trump with their phony lawsuits as well. A full 56% of Pennsylvanians think the Justice Department’s case against Trump for “mishandling documents” is motivated by pure politics, not by the law.  

With sobering numbers like these, it will be harder for the political elite to claim a Biden victory in 2024 in Pennsylvania. What’s more, with the right approach Trump could win the Keystone state and possibly the presidency with a larger coalition of working class voters than he did in 2016.  

Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government. 

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