There’s something wrong with the 2023 U.S. jobs reports. The government removed 439,000 jobs through November 2023 during their “revisions”, a closer look at the numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows. By overstating the jobs numbers reports through November. The revisions total 414,000 jobs which they claim were created or filled but in fact, were not.
The government overinflated the initial jobs report every single month of 2023.
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) January 6, 2024
The initial employment numbers get all the headlines. The revisions get a footnote.
They are gaslighting the public. pic.twitter.com/cojl1gLLCe
That means its initial jobs results were inflated by 439,000 positions, and the job market is not as healthy as the government suggests. This matters because U.S. jobs reports move the markets and U.S. Treasury yields. Plus, they are a significant factor in the Federal Reserve’s decisions about the path of interest rate hikes and cuts. All that affects U.S. consumers’ pocketbooks.
You wouldn’t know there was anything to worry about from the MSM who crow that 2023 was a banner year for jobs, lauding the boost inDecember (probably about to be revised downwards). However the industry gets it.
“Time to stop trading off the payroll data,” tweeted David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research Associates. By his calculations, he says the downward revisions came to “an epic 443,000,” adding, “more than 40% of payroll growth in 2023” came from “the fairy tale ‘Birth-Death’ model” the BLS uses to “guesstimate” its jobs reports.
Read the X thread below and you will see how bad it really is:
Depending on your preferred method of estimation, we don’t have 6.3 million unemployed w/ an unemployment rate of 3.7%, but between 11.1 million and 13.1 million unemployed with an unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5%…
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D.
Dec jobs report 🧵: there’s SO much bad news under the hood of this report, including the economy shedding 1.5 million full-time jobs in a single month, big downward revisions, and a true unemployment rate between 6.4% and 7.5% – here’s the truth you should know… pic.twitter.com/z1BU4irJea
— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) January 5, 2024