Tensions dramatically escalate between nuclear powers – World on standby.

Leave a CommentTensions dramatically escalate between nuclear powers – World on standby.Commentary

April 25, 2025

For decades, India and Pakistan have been locked in a bitter rivalry, fueled by the unresolved Kashmir dispute and a history of wars, proxy conflicts, and nuclear brinkmanship. This volatile fault line erupted anew after the April 22, 2025, terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, where 26 people, mostly tourists, were massacred by The Resistance Front (TRF), a militant group tied to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), a UN-designated terrorist organization notorious for the 2008 Mumbai attacks. India accuses Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence of backing LeT and its offshoot TRF, a charge Pakistan denies, deepening mutual distrust. Among India’s Hindu majority, the attack has ignited outrage and grief, amplifying calls for retribution against what many see as Pakistan’s unrelenting sponsorship of terrorism. This visceral reaction, coupled with India’s sweeping retaliatory measures—like suspending the Indus Waters Treaty—has pushed the nuclear-armed neighbors to the edge of war, threatening to engulf South Asia in chaos.

The Spark: Pahalgam Terror Attack

On April 22, 2025, gunmen attacked Baisaran, a picturesque meadow near Pahalgam in Jammu and Kashmir, killing 26 people, mostly tourists, and injuring several others. The assault, one of the deadliest in the region since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, was claimed by The Resistance Front (TRF), a group Indian authorities link to Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba, a UN-designated terrorist organization.

The terroristsreportedly checked victims’ IDs and, in some cases, forcibly pulled down pants to identify Hindus, targeting them based on circumcision status, as most Hindu males are uncircumcised.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi condemned the attack, vowing to “identify, track, and punish every terrorist and their backers” to the “ends of the Earth.” India swiftly accused Pakistan of supporting the militants. Pakistan’s government, led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, denied involvement, condemning the attack and rejecting India’s allegations as baseless.

Diplomatic Fallout and Tit-for-Tat Measures

The attack triggered a massive and rapid deterioration in India-Pakistan relations, already strained by decades of conflict over Kashmir. India announced a series of retaliatory measures on April 23, including:

  • Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT): India declared the 1960 treaty, which governs water-sharing of the Indus River system, in abeyance until Pakistan ceases support for cross-border terrorism. This move, unprecedented in the treaty’s history, was met with fierce opposition from Pakistan, which called it an “act of war.”
  • Border and Visa Restrictions: India has revoked all existing visas for Pakistani nationals and ordered them to leave the country. Specifically:
  • Visa Revocation: On April 24, 2025, India’s Ministry of External Affairs announced that all existing visas issued to Pakistani nationals would be revoked effective April 27, 2025. Medical visas were given a slightly longer validity until April 29, 2025. All Pakistani nationals in India were required to leave before their visas expired under these revised timelines. India also canceled the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme for Pakistani nationals, which previously allowed certain categories (e.g., dignitaries, businessmen, journalists) to travel without standard visas. Those in India under SVES were given 48 hours to leave, with all prior SVES visas deemed canceled.
  • Border Closure: The Attari-Wagah border closure further enforced these measures by limiting exit routes, with reports of Pakistani nationals arriving at the border to comply with the deadline.
  • Diplomatic Downgrade: India reduced diplomatic ties, summoning Pakistan’s top diplomat in Delhi to protest.

Pakistan responded in kind on April 24, escalating the crisis:

  • Airspace Closure: Pakistan barred Indian airlines from its airspace, disrupting regional aviation.
  • Trade Suspension: All trade with India, including through third countries, was halted.
  • Threat to Bilateral Agreements: Pakistan threatened to suspend all bilateral accords, including the 1972 Simla Agreement, which establishes the Line of Control (LoC) and governs diplomatic relations.
  • Military Posturing: Pakistan’s military was placed on high alert, with reports of fighter jets being repositioned closer to the Indian border.

Military Tensions and the Line of Control

The LoC, the de facto boundary separating Indian and Pakistani-administered Kashmir, has become a flashpoint. On April 24, both sides reported exchanges of gunfire, with each blaming the other for initiating the skirmishes. The United Nations urged “maximum restraint,” warning of the risk of wider military escalation between the two nuclear powers.

India’s military response options are under intense scrutiny. Past incidents, such as the 2016 Uri surgical strikes and the 2019 Balakot airstrike, suggest India may consider targeted strikes on terrorist infrastructure across the LoC. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh reiterated India’s “zero tolerance” policy on terrorism, hinting at a “strong response.” Meanwhile, Pakistan’s military signaled readiness for any “Indian misadventure,” with naval exercises and air warning aircraft deployed as precautions.

The Indus Waters Treaty: A Dangerous Escalation

India’s suspension of the IWT has emerged as the most contentious issue. The treaty, brokered by the World Bank, allocates water from the Indus River and its tributaries, critical for agriculture in both nations, particularly Pakistan. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif warned that any attempt to divert water would be met with “full force across the complete spectrum of national power.” Protests erupted in Pakistan over the decision, reflecting the treaty’s importance to the country’s economy and food security.

Analysts warn that disrupting the water supply could mark a turning point in India-Pakistan relations, potentially escalating the conflict beyond diplomatic and limited military engagements. The treaty has survived previous wars, making India’s move a significant departure from historical norms.

Domestic and International Reactions

In India, the Pahalgam attack has unified political parties and the public in outrage. Protests and candlelight marches have swept the country, with markets in Delhi observing a shutdown in solidarity. The Supreme Court and religious leaders, including the Shahi Imam of Lucknow’s Teele Wali Masjid, condemned the attack and supported the government’s stance against Pakistan.

Internationally, the United Nations and global leaders, including UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, have called for de-escalation and condemned the attack. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres emphasized resolving issues through “meaningful mutual engagement.” However, Bangladesh’s warming ties with Pakistan have raised concerns in India about regional alignments.

Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Asif accused India of orchestrating the attack to justify aggression, a claim dismissed by Indian officials. Asif’s remarks, including allegations of India planning attacks in Pakistan, have further inflamed tensions.

Is War Imminent?

While both nations have stopped short of declaring war, the rhetoric and actions suggest a dangerous trajectory. Speculation abounds about Pakistan’s motives. Some reports suggest Pakistan’s army chief, General Asim Munir, may see a limited conflict as a way to rally domestic support amid economic woes and internal unrest. India, however, appears determined to project strength, with Modi’s government facing pressure to deliver a very decisive response.

The Path Forward

The international community faces a daunting challenge in preventing a broader conflict. The UN’s call for restraint and dialogue remains the most viable path, but mutual distrust and domestic pressures complicate diplomacy. The suspension of the IWT and the closure of airspace and borders signal a near-total breakdown in bilateral relations, making de-escalation urgent yet elusive.

As both nations bolster their military postures along the LoC, the world watches with bated breath. The Pahalgam attack, initially a terrorist tragedy, has reignited a decades-old rivalry, pushing India and Pakistan to the edge of a crisis that could reshape the region’s future, thrusting India and Pakistan to the edge of a nuclear precipice, where escalation could unleash unimaginable devastation.

If India’s very real outrage, fueled by Hindu demands for vengeance against LeT and TRF’s terrorism, leads to strikes on Pakistan-based militant camps, Pakistan’s military might retaliate, igniting a cycle of violence between two nations wielding over 300 nuclear warheads combined.

A single misstep—be it a misjudged airstrike or a terrorist provocation—could spiral into a nuclear exchange, with models predicting tens of millions of immediate casualties and global climate disruption from a “nuclear winter.”

Sources: NDTV, Al Jazeera, Hindustan Times, The Hindu, ABC News, Reuters, BBC, Sky News, The Guardian, Newsweek, India Today