The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) surged to 98.0 in May 2025 (1985=100), up 12.3 points from a revised 85.7 in April, marking a significant rebound after five months of decline, per The Conference Board. This uptick reflects cautious optimism in the U.S. economy under President Donald Trump’s second term, driven by policy shifts, but persistent concerns about inflation and jobs temper the outlook.
The Conference Board #ConsumerConfidence Index® increased by 12.3 points in May to 98.0 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April.
— The Conference Board (@Conferenceboard) May 27, 2025
The #PresentSituation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—rose 4.8 points to 135.9. The… pic.twitter.com/b86bVWGkbN
Key Findings:
- Present Situation Index: Rose 4.8 points to 135.9, indicating improved views of current business conditions, though job availability perceptions weakened for the fifth consecutive month, per The Conference Board.
- Expectations Index: Jumped 17.4 points to 72.8, reflecting less pessimism about business, employment, and future income, but still below the 80 threshold signaling recession risks.
- Driving Factors: The May 12, 2025, pause on some China tariffs boosted confidence, with half of responses post-dating the announcement, per The Conference Board. Purchasing plans for homes, cars, appliances, and services like dining and entertainment rose, signaling potential consumer spending growth.
- Inflation Concerns: Average 12-month inflation expectations eased to 6.5% from 7% in April, but tariffs remain a top worry, with consumers citing price increases, per The Conference Board.
- Demographics and Politics: The rebound was broad-based across age, income levels, and political affiliation, with Republicans showing the strongest gains, aligning with GOP optimism post-Trump inauguration, per Axios.
Analysis: The CCI’s recovery suggests Trump’s early policies—tariff relief and pro-business rhetoric—resonate with consumers, aligning with priorities of economic dynamism, per The Wall Street Journal. The Expectations Index’s rise, though below 80, indicates confidence in tax cuts and deregulation, like those in the One Big Beautiful Bill, to spur growth, per Tax Foundation. However, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.2 in May from 53.2 in April), reflecting tariff fears and job market pessimism, highlighting a split in sentiment, per Trading Economics.. Persistent inflation (3.2% CPI in April 2025) and Moody’s downgrade of U.S. credit due to fiscal policy concerns could dampen gains, per CNN.
🚨 Consumer Confidence for May STRONGER THAN EXPECTED on optimism for trade deals!@CNBC: 'The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index leaped to 98.0, a 12.3-point increase from April.' pic.twitter.com/l8npvNJ31c
— The White House (@WhiteHouse) May 27, 2025
Final Words: The CCI’s May 2025 jump to 98.6 is a win for center-right policies, signaling consumer trust in Trump’s economic agenda, but job worries and tariff-related price fears, as seen in Michigan’s index, pose risks, per The Conference Board and Trading Economics. If inflation stabilizes and job perceptions improve, confidence could sustain, boosting GOP prospects in 2026 midterms; otherwise, economic unease may cap gains.