2026 Florida House Elections: Vulnerable Seats, Safe Districts, and Emerging Candidates
The 2026 U.S. House elections in Florida, set for November 3, will determine the representatives for all 28 congressional districts, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s second midterm cycle. With Republicans holding a slim 220-215 House majority, Florida’s delegation—currently 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats—will be a key battleground as both parties vie for control of the 120th Congress. Florida’s GOP dominance, bolstered by redistricting and Trump’s 2024 win (52.6%), offers a strong foundation to defend seats, but Democratic gains in suburban areas and midterm dynamics pose risks. This article assesses which seats are vulnerable to a party change, which are safe, and highlights additional candidates considering runs, based on developments as of June 13, 2025.
Vulnerable Seats to Party Change
Florida’s House map, drawn after the 2020 census, favors Republicans, with 19 districts rated Safe or Likely Republican and only 4 Safe Democratic. However, several seats are vulnerable due to narrow 2024 margins, demographic shifts, or retiring incumbents. Key districts include:
- District 23 (Jared Moskowitz, D): Moskowitz won with 50.6% in 2024 against a strong Republican challenge, in a district Kamala Harris carried by 5%. Posts on X note this as Florida’s most contested seat, with Republicans eyeing a flip due to its swing potential. The district’s Broward County base leans Democratic, but GOP gains in suburban areas make it a Toss-up.
- District 13 (Anna Paulina Luna, R): Luna’s 51.2% win in 2024, in a Harris+1 district, reflects tight margins. Pinellas County’s suburban voters, trending left since 2020, and Luna’s polarizing style could make this a Leans Republican race vulnerable to Democratic challengers.
- District 15 (Laurel Lee, R): Lee won with 54.3% in a Trump+2 district, but Hillsborough County’s growing Democratic vote (up 3% from 2020) and her modest 2024 margin suggest a Leans Republican status. Retirement rumors could open it further.
- District 27 (María Elvira Salazar, R): Salazar’s 54.5% victory in a Harris+3 district highlights Miami-Dade’s competitiveness. Hispanic voter shifts and Salazar’s moderate stance make this a Leans Republican seat at risk if Democrats field a strong candidate.
Democrats hold 13 Trump-won districts nationally, but only Moskowitz’s seat fits this category in Florida, giving Republicans a defensive edge. The DCCC targets 35 GOP seats nationwide, with Florida’s swing districts on the list, though specific 2026 targets remain unannounced.
Safe Seats
Most Florida districts are insulated from party changes due to redistricting and voter alignment:
- Districts 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 11, 12, 14, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 24, 25, 26 (Republican-held): These districts, represented by incumbents like Neal Dunn (61.6%), Kat Cammack (61.6%), and Brian Mast (61.8%), are Safe Republican. Trump won them by double digits in 2024 (e.g., District 1 at 22%), and rural or conservative-leaning Panhandle and Central Florida bases ensure stability. Special election wins in Districts 1 and 6 in 2025 (Patronis, Fine) reinforce this.
- Districts 7, 8, 9 (Democratic-held): Incumbents Maxwell Frost (57.4%), Darren Soto (63.2%), and Gwen Graham (unopposed in 2024) hold Safe Democratic seats. Harris carried these districts by 10–20%, with Orlando and Kissimmee’s diverse, urban voters providing a solid lock.
- District 22 (Lois Frankel, D): Frankel’s 60.1% win in a Harris+12 district makes it Safe Democratic, despite Palm Beach County’s proximity to swing areas.
These 22 seats, comprising 79% of Florida’s delegation, are unlikely to flip, reflecting the state’s GOP tilt and redistricting advantage.
Additional Candidates Considering Runs
With 13 incumbents nationwide announcing retirement (6 Democrats, 7 Republicans) as of June 2025, and Florida’s political activity, new candidates are emerging:
- District 23: Republicans George Moraitis, a former state representative, and Joe Kaufman, a perennial candidate, are active, with Moraitis gaining traction. Democrats may see challengers if Moskowitz runs for Senate, though none are declared.
- District 13: No new candidates are confirmed, but Luna’s vulnerability could draw Democratic hopefuls, possibly from local Pinellas County politics.
- District 15: Lee’s potential retirement has sparked interest from state legislators, though names remain speculative pending her decision.
- District 27: Salazar faces no primary threat, but Democrats might recruit Miami-Dade officials if her margin tightens.
- Open Seats: Byron Donalds (District 19) retiring to run for governor leaves his Southwest Florida seat open, attracting figures like Matt Caldwell, Lee County Property Appraiser, and Jenna Persons-Mulicka, a state representative. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick’s District 20, unopposed in 2024, could see challengers if she falters.
Other districts lack declared candidates, but Florida’s June 30, 2025, FEC deadline for Q2 fundraising will clarify the field. Special elections in 2025 (e.g., District 1’s Jimmy Patronis) show GOP strength, but Democratic turnout gains suggest competition.
Likelihood of Party Change
Florida’s 2026 House races favor Republicans to hold their 20-8 edge, with a 20–30% chance of net Democratic gains. Midterm trends historically penalize the president’s party, with Trump’s 43% approval (May 2025) and tariff-driven price hikes (3%) boosting Democrats. However, redistricting and Trump’s 52.6% win limit flips to 1–2 seats, likely District 23 or 13, requiring strong Democratic turnout in suburbs. Republicans need to defend 5–6 vulnerable seats, a manageable task given their 2024 performance and rural base.
What’s next?
Florida’s 2026 House elections solidify GOP control, with 22 Safe seats and only 4 vulnerable districts—23, 13, 15, and 27—where Democrats have a slim shot at gains. Emerging candidates like Moraitis and Caldwell signal activity, but the state’s red lean and Trump’s influence favor Republicans. Democrats’ midterm edge may flip 1–2 seats, but a broader shift is unlikely without a wave election. As candidates solidify, Florida’s races will test GOP resilience and Democratic resurgence in a pivotal midterm year.