The 2026 U.S. Senate race in North Carolina has taken a dramatic turn with incumbent Republican Thom Tillis announcing earlier today that he will not seek a third term, leaving the seat open. This development transforms the contest into a critical battleground that could shape the Senate’s 53-47 Republican majority, with Democrats needing a net gain of four seats to reclaim control. This open seat presents both opportunity and risk for the GOP, as the state’s purple tilt and Tillis’s vulnerability to a primary challenge had already made the race competitive. The absence of an incumbent now intensifies the stakes, with candidate quality and national trends poised to decide the outcome.
North Carolina’s political landscape is a mixed bag, with Republicans holding supermajorities in the state legislature and both Senate seats, yet Democrats winning half the statewide executive offices in 2024, including the governorship. The state backed Donald Trump by 3.2% in 2024, a narrow margin reflecting its swing-state status, and ticket-splitting voters have kept races tight—Tillis won in 2020 with just 48.7%. His retirement, prompted by party censure over bipartisan votes and pressure from the right, opens the door to a crowded Republican primary, while Democrats see a rare chance to flip a seat in a Trump-won state. The Cook Political Report now rates the race “Lean Republican,” a downgrade from Tillis’s incumbency edge, signaling a toss-up potential.
Thom Tillis always struck me as a cold, cold human although he usually voted Republican. As a NC citizen I hope we can nominate an honest, moral, personable conservative Republican. S/he will probably face Roy Cooper. He will be hard to beat.
— Charlotte Troutman (@charlottetroutm) June 30, 2025
On the Republican side, several figures are eyeing the nomination. Lara Trump, a Wilmington native and former RNC co-chair, has been floated as a contender, with posts found on X suggesting strong primary support, though she has not confirmed. Michael Whatley, current RNC chair, is considering a run, leveraging his party ties. Pat Harrigan, the freshman Representative from the 10th District and a former Green Beret, brings military credentials and Trump’s 2024 endorsement, making him a potential base favorite. Don Brown, an attorney and 2024 congressional candidate, has already declared, appealing to grassroots conservatives. The primary could fracture the GOP, especially if Trump weighs in, given Tillis’s past tensions with him.
Lara Trump grew up in Wilmington, North Carolina, and is also described as a native of Wrightsville Beach, which is just east of Wilmington.
She attended Emsley A. Laney High School in Wilmington before going on to study at North Carolina State University.
— Ask Perplexity (@AskPerplexity) June 30, 2025
Democrats have a clearer path, with former Congressman Wiley Nickel announcing his candidacy in April 2025, positioning himself as a moderate with House experience. The party’s hopes hinge on former Governor Roy Cooper, who left office in January 2025 after eight years and remains popular, with a decision expected soon. Cooper’s statewide wins in Trump country make him a formidable general election candidate, though his age—68 in 2026—raises questions. Other possibilities include Dan McCready, a 2018 and 2019 congressional nominee with energy sector experience, though he has not committed. A March poll showed Cooper leading Tillis 47% to 43% before the retirement, suggesting Democratic momentum.
The prospects for a party change lean toward competitiveness, with Democrats holding an edge if Cooper runs. North Carolina’s even partisan split and mid-term trends—often favoring the opposition party—could boost their chances, especially if Trump’s second term falters. Republicans must unify behind a nominee who can appeal beyond the base, as a divisive primary could weaken their general election standing. Rural voter concerns over the economy and border security favor the GOP, but urban turnout in Charlotte and Raleigh could tip the scale. Without current head-to-head polling post-retirement, the race remains fluid, but this is a tight contest where candidate selection will be decisive. This open seat could well determine Senate control, making every move in the coming months critical.