Prospects for Ohio’s 2026 Special Senate Election: Candidates and Likely Outcomes
Ohio’s 2026 U.S. Senate special election, set for November 3, 2026, will fill the remaining two years of JD Vance’s term, following his resignation on January 10, 2025, to assume the vice presidency. Governor Mike DeWine appointed Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted as interim senator, positioning him as the Republican frontrunner. With Ohio’s political landscape tilting firmly Republican—evidenced by Donald Trump’s 11-point victory in 2024 and recent GOP Senate wins—the race leans heavily in the GOP’s favor. However, Democratic hopes hinge on a potential candidacy from former Senator Sherrod Brown, whose populist appeal could make the contest competitive. Below is an analysis of the likely candidates, political dynamics, and potential outcomes.
The Political Context
Ohio has shifted from a swing state to a reliably red one. Trump won the state by 8 points in 2016 and 2020, expanding to 11 points in 2024. In 2022, JD Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan by 6.1 points for this Senate seat, and in 2024, Republican Bernie Moreno ousted incumbent Sherrod Brown by 3.6 points in the most expensive Senate race in U.S. history, costing $483.4 million. Ohio’s Republican dominance, coupled with a GOP-controlled state government, gives Republicans a structural advantage. Yet, the 2026 midterm environment could favor Democrats, as the president’s party typically loses seats. With Trump’s second term underway, any economic or policy missteps could fuel Democratic momentum, though the Senate map remains challenging, with Republicans defending 22 seats compared to Democrats’ 13.
Republican Candidates
Jon Husted: As the incumbent, Husted holds a commanding position. Appointed by DeWine, he has served since January 2025 and launched his campaign on April 9, 2025, with Trump’s endorsement, calling him a “wonderful man” who “always delivered for Ohio.” Husted, 57, brings extensive experience, having served as Ohio House Speaker (2005–2009), Secretary of State (2011–2019), and Lieutenant Governor (2019–2025). His $5 million war chest, originally raised for a gubernatorial bid, bolsters his campaign. Polls show him leading potential Democratic challengers: a BGSU/YouGov survey from April 18–24, 2025, gave him 49% against Sherrod Brown’s 46% and 50% against Tim Ryan’s 44% among registered voters, with a ±4.08% margin of error. Husted’s focus on border security, economic growth, and “Ohio values” aligns with Trump’s agenda, though his appointed status could be a liability, as interim senators often face challenges holding seats.
Other Potential Republicans: If Husted falters, other GOP figures could emerge. Matt Dolan, a former state senator and 2022 and 2024 Senate candidate, has name recognition but lost primaries to more Trump-aligned candidates. Frank LaRose, Ohio’s Secretary of State and a 2024 Senate candidate, is running for state auditor but could pivot if the race opens. Jane Timken, former Ohio GOP chair and 2022 Senate candidate, is a business-focused option but lacks Husted’s electoral track record. Vivek Ramaswamy, a Trump ally and former presidential candidate, has declared for the 2026 gubernatorial race, ruling himself out.
Democratic Candidates
Sherrod Brown: The former senator, defeated in 2024, is Democrats’ best hope. At 72, Brown’s populist “Dignity of Work” message resonates with Ohio’s working-class voters, helping him overperform in red-leaning states. He won Senate races in 2006, 2012, and 2018, the latter by 6.8 points in a Trump-won state. In March 2025, Brown launched the Dignity of Work Institute, signaling continued political engagement. He has not committed but told CNN in November 2024 he’s “not dismissing anything.” His 2024 loss was narrow, and polls suggest competitiveness: the BGSU/YouGov survey showed him trailing Husted by just 3 points. However, after a grueling 2024 campaign, Brown may hesitate to run back-to-back races, especially with a 2028 election looming to retain the seat.
Tim Ryan: The former congressman (2003–2023) and 2022 Senate nominee is another potential contender. Ryan, who ran a centrist campaign in 2022, lost to Vance by 6.1 points but outperformed expectations. Polls show him trailing Husted by 6 points, a wider gap than Brown. Ryan is also considering a gubernatorial run, and his decision, expected by summer 2025, will hinge on Brown’s choice.
Emilia Sykes: The U.S. representative from Ohio’s 13th district (2023–present) is a rising Democratic star. Her youth and appeal in Akron could energize voters, but her lack of statewide name recognition makes her a long shot unless Brown and Ryan decline.
Key Dynamics and Challenges
The race’s competitiveness depends on the Democratic nominee and the national environment. Brown’s track record makes him a formidable candidate, especially if Trump’s policies falter. A Bowling Green State University professor noted that a worsening economy could boost Democrats’ chances, as midterms often punish the president’s party. In 2018, Democrats gained 40 House seats during Trump’s first midterm, a precedent Brown could exploit. However, Ohio’s red tilt and Husted’s entrenched position pose hurdles. Husted’s fundraising advantage and Trump’s endorsement solidify his base, though his appointed status could invite primary challenges from more conservative Republicans.
Democrats face a tough Senate map, needing a net gain of four seats to reclaim the majority (currently 53–47 Republican, with two independents caucusing with Democrats). Ohio is one of their few viable targets, alongside Maine and North Carolina, but all are in Trump-won states. The Cook Political Report rates Ohio as Solid Republican, reflecting the state’s GOP lean and Husted’s strength, though a Brown candidacy could shift it to Lean Republican.
Likely Outcomes
If Sherrod Brown runs, the race becomes a toss-up. His name recognition, populist appeal, and history of winning in Ohio could capitalize on midterm headwinds against Republicans. A strong national Democratic wave, driven by economic discontent or Trump’s polarizing actions, could tip the scales. Without Brown, Husted is heavily favored. Against Ryan or Sykes, his lead widens, as neither matches Brown’s statewide clout. The GOP’s dominance in Ohio, combined with Husted’s experience and Trump’s backing, makes a Republican hold the most likely outcome, with the caveat that Brown’s entry could make it a nail-biter.
The winner will serve until December 15, 2028 (likely end of Senate session), facing another election to retain the seat. With Ohio’s Republican shift and Husted’s early momentum, Democrats need an exceptional candidate and environment to flip this seat. For now, the advantage lies with the GOP, but Brown’s decision will be the race’s defining factor.