They think we won’t notice…jobs numbers off AGAIN

Leave a CommentThey think we won’t notice…jobs numbers off AGAINCommentary

The October jobs report was just released and shows the U.S. added only 12K jobs last month, which is around 1000,000 fewer than economists expected.

We have been reporting on the downward revisions all year – because they happen every month. Here, here and here.

mployIn the U.S., employment data primarily comes from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics), which conducts surveys to estimate employment figures. These include the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey for payrolls and the Current Population Survey (CPS) for unemployment rates. The BLS operates with a degree of independence, and its methods are scrutinized by various stakeholders, including opposition parties, economists, and think tanks. However, it is easy to see why the BLS is suspected of manipulating these numbers.

At the beginning. of 2024, the U.S. economy was reported to have added a significant number of jobs, but these figures were later revised downwards. For instance, from March 2023 to March 2024, the economy added 818,000 fewer jobs than initially reported, marking the largest downward revision in 15 years. This indicates that job growth was way less robust than initially thought.

It’s difficult to prove any of this is deliberate but it sure messes with planning; potentially leading to policy missteps if decisions are based on inaccurate data. It could also signal underlying issues like overestimating new business creations or underestimating job losses in certain sectors.