In this long-awaited follow-up to his interview in late March, Dr. John Ioannidis* discusses the results of three preliminary studies, (including his latest, which shows a drastically reduced infection fatality rate); the worrisome effects of the lockdown; the Swedish approach; the Italian data; the ups and downs of testing; the feasibility of “contact tracing”, and much more.
Dr. John Ioannidis is the most qualified individual on earth to comment on statistics around pandemics, says Topher Field.
In this video he brings us up to date with the latest research.
1. The virus is far more widespread than thought, up to 85 times more infections than was thought.
2. The fatality rate is therefore up to 85 times lower than feared.
3. That puts it in the same ballpark as seasonal flu. Yes really.
4. Put another way, for people under 65 your risk of dying of Covid19 is similar to your risk of dying on your way to work. Yes really.
5. Vaccines are hard and there’s no guarantee we can make one for Covid19.
6. We’re going to have to get back to normal life before there is a vaccine.
7. Lockdown measures and current hospital policies combined may have made things worse, not better.
8. The WHO, Imperial College, and all the other early models got it spectacularly wrong. We now have much better data and should be correcting course.
9. The early predictions of millions of deaths are ‘Science Fiction’. Even in a ‘do nothing’ scenario.
*John P. A. Ioannidis is a Greek-American physician-scientist and writer who has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, and clinical research. Ioannidis studies scientific research itself, meta-research primarily in clinical medicine and the social sciences. Ioannidis is a Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor, by courtesy, of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences.
Watch previous episodes of Perspectives on the Pandemic here:
Episode 1: https://youtu.be/d6MZy-2fcBw
Episode 2: https://youtu.be/lGC5sGdz4kg
Episode 3: https://youtu.be/VK0Wtjh3HVA