British Big Mad at Diego Garcia Deal. U.S. Happy (but did they read the small print?)

Leave a CommentBritish Big Mad at Diego Garcia Deal. U.S. Happy (but did they read the small print?)Commentary, National Security
The Chagos Islands, a strategically critical archipelago in the Indian Ocean, are at the center of a massive geopolitical transition as of May 22, 2025, with profound implications for U.S. national security. The islands, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT), host the vital U.S.-UK military base on Diego Garcia, a cornerstone for American power projection in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. A UK-Mauritius agreement to transfer sovereignty to Mauritius, intended to secure the base for 99 years, was temporarily blocked by a UK High Court injunction on May 22, 2025, hours before its signing, though the injunction was later lifted, allowing the deal to proceed. From a U.S. perspective, this legal drama underscores the base’s importance but raises concerns about Mauritius’s ties to China, Chagossian unrest, and regional stability.

Current Developments: Sovereignty Transfer and Court Intervention

On October 3, 2024, the UK announced it would transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, a deal formalized on May 21, 2025, through a treaty signed virtually by UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Mauritian Prime Minister Navin Ramgoolam. The agreement grants Mauritius sovereignty over the archipelago, including Diego Garcia, for 99 years, with an option to extend for 40 years.
 
The UK will pay Mauritius £101 million annually (£3.4 billion net cost, inflation-adjusted) to lease Diego Garcia for a joint U.S.-UK military base, ensuring its operation. The treaty awaits ratification by the UK and Mauritian parliaments, expected in late 2025.  
The deal addresses a 2019 International Court of Justice (ICJ) advisory opinion and a UN General Assembly resolution (116-6) declaring the UK’s control unlawful, affirming Chagos as part of Mauritius. Mauritius argued it was coerced into ceding Chagos in 1965 for independence, a claim the ICJ upheld. The Labour government under Keir Starmer has fallen for this sob story and is virtue signaling to the entire world that it’s a push over for any minority. 

However, on yesterday, (May 22, 2025), UK High Court Judge Julian Goose granted an injunction temporarily blocking the transfer, following a challenge by Chagossian women Bernadette Dugasse and Bertrice Pompe. The plaintiffs argued the deal violated their rights as British citizens, complicating repatriation under Mauritian sovereignty.
The agreement allows Mauritius to resettle Chagossians—1,500–3,500 people forcibly displaced by the UK between 1967 and 1973—on islands excluding Diego Garcia – funded by a UK trust.
Hours later, Judge Martin Chamberlain lifted the injunction, ruling that Britain’s interests would be “substantially prejudiced” by a delay. The signing proceeded, but Pompe vowed to appeal, calling it a “sad day”. The court’s actions highlight Chagossian exclusion and potential for further legal disruptions.

Diego Garcia: A Linchpin of U.S. Security

Diego Garcia, the largest Chagos island, is a critical U.S. military asset, leased from the UK in 1966 for 50 years (extended to 2036) and now secured for 99 years. Dubbed an “unsinkable aircraft carrier,” it supports B-52 and B-2 bombers, naval vessels, and up to 4,000 personnel, enabling operations like the Gulf War, Operation Enduring Freedom, and B-2 strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen on October 17, 2024, per StratNews Global. Its location, 1,000 miles south of India, facilitates maritime surveillance and counterterrorism, per Foreign Policy Research Institute. In the small print of this ludicrous Chagos surrender deal, Keir Starmer has agreed to inform Mauritius of any military action that launches from Diego Garcia.
 

The agreement ensures U.S. access, with the UK retaining veto power over foreign military presence on other islands. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio endorsed the Chagos Islands deal, stating it “secures the long-term, stable, and effective operation of the joint U.S.-UK military facility at Diego Garcia,”

The U.S. funds operations through classified agreements, with the UK’s £101 million annual payment to Mauritius supporting continuity.

U.S. Security Implications of the Chagos Islands Agreement

But is it so good for us? This can’t be good, can it?

1. Securing Diego Garcia Amid Legal Uncertainties
The 99-year lease ensures Diego Garcia remains a critical U.S.-UK military base, vital for countering threats from Iran, Houthi attacks, and China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean. With its 3,000-meter runway and deep-water port, the base enables rapid deployment, unmatched by alternatives like Guam. The UK’s veto power over the islands helps prevent rival access, reinforcing U.S. strategic dominance. However, a recent UK court injunction, though lifted, highlights potential legal challenges. Ongoing Chagossian appeals could delay ratification or complicate resettlement plans, posing risks to the base’s stability that the U.S. must closely monitor.
2. China’s Growing Influence in Mauritius
Mauritius’s deepening ties with China, including $1 billion in infrastructure loans and a small Sino-Mauritian population, raise concerns about Beijing’s potential influence over the Chagos Islands after the initial lease expires in 2036. China’s regional ports, like Gwadar and Hambantota, and Mauritius’s 2019 Huawei 5G deal fuel fears that Beijing could pressure Mauritius to limit U.S. operations or seek maritime access. Mauritius’s $1.6 billion debt to China adds leverage, though the UK’s veto power offers a temporary safeguard. The U.S. is exploring partnerships with Mauritius and India to counter these risks.
3. Chagossian Unrest as a Potential Threat
Chagossian communities, excluded from the deal’s negotiations, have voiced strong opposition, with some labeling the 1967–1973 expulsions a “crime against humanity.” A UK court’s initial block of the agreement, driven by these claims, signals tensions that could indirectly disrupt Diego Garcia’s operations. While resettlement is banned on Diego Garcia itself, protests or sabotage by resettled Chagossians nearby could affect logistics. With appeals still pending, rising unrest may further complicate the situation.
4. India’s Role in the Regional Power Balance
The Chagos Islands are a focal point in the U.S.-China-India strategic rivalry. India, a close ally of Mauritius, supports the deal but aims to limit China’s regional influence. Through the Quad alliance (U.S., India, Japan, Australia), the U.S. uses Diego Garcia to counter China’s Belt and Road Initiative. India’s potential involvement in patrols or intelligence-sharing could strengthen U.S. security, though Mauritius’s neutral stance complicates cooperation. Alternative sites, like Australia’s Cocos Islands, lack Diego Garcia’s robust infrastructure, making the base indispensable.
5. Political Challenges in the U.S. and UK
In the U.S., initial concerns from President Trump were resolved by his endorsement in May 2025, but some GOP figures, like Senator Tom Cotton, warn the deal risks “ceding ground to China.” In the UK, Conservative critics, including Robert Jenrick, have called it a “strategic disaster.” A brief UK court injunction reflects domestic pressure that could push the U.S. to demand stricter treaty terms, though broad support mitigates this risk for now.

Broader U.S. Security Considerations

The Chagos agreement is pivotal for U.S. strategy in the Indo-Pacific, with Diego Garcia’s 2,000 civilian workers (mostly Filipino and Mauritian) ensuring operational efficiency. Long-term challenges—China’s influence, Chagossian unrest, and Mauritius’s economic vulnerabilities—demand proactive U.S. diplomacy. The Pentagon is exploring fallback options like the Seychelles or India’s Andaman Islands, but none rival Diego Garcia’s capabilities. Environmental measures, such as a Mauritian Marine Protected Area, could boost U.S. soft power, though Chagossian fishing rights near the base require careful oversight to avoid security disruptions.

This means

The UK’s decision to transfer sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, while securing a 99-year lease for the Diego Garcia military base, is a strategic win for U.S. security interests in the short term but introduces long-term risks that demand careful management. Diego Garcia remains a linchpin in the Indo-Pacific, with its unmatched runway and deep-water port enabling rapid U.S. power projection against threats from Iran, Houthi groups, and China’s expanding regional ambitions. The UK’s retained veto power over the islands ensures rival powers, particularly China, are kept at bay for now, preserving U.S. dominance in a volatile region.
 
However, the move raises concerns about future vulnerabilities. Mauritius’s growing economic ties with China, including $1.6 billion in loans and a 2019 Huawei 5G deal, signal potential leverage for Beijing after the initial lease expires in 2036. China’s nearby ports, like Gwadar and Hambantota, amplify fears of maritime encroachment if Mauritius faces debt pressure. Legal uncertainties, underscored by a UK court’s brief injunction, highlight the deal’s fragility, as future challenges could disrupt base operations. Political opposition in the U.S., with figures like Senator Tom Cotton warning of “ceding ground to China,” and in the UK, where Conservatives label it a “strategic disaster,” could also complicate implementation.
 
The U.S. can mitigate these risks by deepening partnerships with Mauritius and India through the Quad alliance to counter China’s influence. Alternative bases, like the Seychelles or India’s Andaman Islands, are less viable due to inferior infrastructure, making Diego Garcia’s stability non-negotiable. The deal’s environmental provisions, such as a Mauritian Marine Protected Area, offer a chance to enhance U.S. soft power, but only if executed without compromising base security. Overall, while the agreement secures a critical asset for now, the U.S. must prioritize diplomacy and contingency planning to safeguard Diego Garcia’s role in an increasingly contested region.