Two new polls have sobering news for President Joe Biden when it comes to maintaining his support among Black voters.
A recent Emerson poll found that 22% of Black voters say they’d support Former President Trump over President Joe Biden in a head-to head match up. This is a startlingly high share of Black voters compared to the margins he earned in 2020, although Trump did increase his share of the Black vote compared to 2016.
The Emerson Poll also found 19% of Blacks would support Ron DeSantis over Joe Biden in a head-to-head matchup, indicating around one-in-five Blacks are willing to vote against Joe Biden.
While approximately one in five Black Americans would vote for either Trump or DeSantis over Joe Biden in the general election, a sizeable share would also support someone other than Biden in the Democratic Primaries. Thirteen percent of Blacks would support Robert F. Kennedy Jr. over Biden according to the poll, 1% would support Marianne Williamson, and 4% would support someone else, indicating 18% of Blacks would choose someone other than Biden.
The poll shows a third-party candidate like progressive activist Cornel West, would also hurt Biden more than Trump. West is currently polling at 6% in a hypothetical three-way race against Trump and Biden, but where he draws his support from would hurt Biden more. West is polling at 15% with Blacks and 13% with young people.
Black Americans are on the move, and they are no longer solidly in the Biden camp like they were in 2020.
This comes on top of a recent Economist/YouGov poll showing Kennedy’s favorability is highest among Black voters than any other group. While 13% of Black Americans say they would support Kennedy in the Democratic primaries, a far wider share of the Black population views Kennedy positively. Nearly a quarter of Blacks (24%) view Kennedy “very favorably” compared to 10% of Whites and 16% of Hispanics in the poll.
Overall, 62% of Black voters view Kennedy either “very favorably” or “somewhat favorably”, giving Kennedy a 44-point favorability rating among Black voters. Among Whites and Hispanics alike Kennedy holds a 24-point net favorability rating.
The fact that Kennedy is popular with Black voters could spell trouble for Biden in the democratic primaries, and there is no guarantee that Black voters will return to support Biden in the general election.
YouGov polling also shows Trump’s approval rating has nearly doubled with Black Americans since he left office, going from 19% in early 2021 to 37% this spring. This represents an 18 percentage-point increase in Trump’s favorability over the past two years among Blacks. The same survey shows 38% of Blacks want Trump to run again.
Trump’s share of the Black vote has been on the rise, particularly among Black men. He won 12% of Black Americans nationwide in 2020, up from 8% in 2016. His most substantial gain was among Black men, 18% of whom supported Trump in 2020 up from 13% in 2016. Though his share of the Black female vote was small, it doubled from 4% in 2016 to 8% in 2020.
While the shift is modest, it does not appear to be reversing. Evidence of a shift toward the right can also be found in the 2022 midterm elections, where GOP House candidates gained 5 points with Black men nationwide compared to 2018.
Alarmingly for Democrats, the share of Black men supporting Democrats has dropped continually in every presidential election since 2012. In 2012, 96% of Black women voted for Obama, up from 92% in 2008. However, just 87% of Black men supported Obama’s reelection in 2012, down from 95% in 2008. For Black men under age 30, just 81% ended up supporting Obama’s reelection.
In 2018 Americans for Limited Government Foundation commissioned a nationwide survey of Black Americans and noted that while a majority are wary of the Republican Party label, many hold traditionally conservative views especially on economic issues.
We found that four-in-five black Americans (80%) believe that small business is the key to American success and the same number do not trust the government to spend tax dollars. There was near universal agreement (93%) on reducing individual tax rates and supporting school choice (90%), and over half of Black voters (53%) said the Democratic Party had left the Black community behind while counting on their support. This figure was significantly higher for Black millennials (61%).
The reason African Americans are increasingly supportive of Trump two years after he left office despite a media firestorm to dissuade them appears to be a simple one – the economy.
Black Americans are struggling harder today economically than they were under the Trump Administration. YouGov data shows Black Americans are “very” concerned about the economy by an average of ten percentage points more than Whites and Hispanics – 78% compared to 69% and 68% respectively.
The Black and Hispanic unemployment rates hit the lowest numbers on record in 2019 under then-President Trump, a factor that contributed to Trump’s gains with both groups in 2020.
Polls are no guarantee of support in an election, but the fact that around a fifth of Black Americans are fed up with Biden is not something to be taken lightly. In fact, the number could be far lager, considering the fact that Trump supporters are notoriously wary of sharing their views with pollsters.
The Biden Administration has done little of substance to improve living conditions for Black Americans, and has instead allowed inflation billow out of control, left the southern border in chaos, and occupied itself in the endless Russia-Ukraine conflict. Black Americans are beginning to consider other options, and these options include the GOP as well as splitting for a Democratic challenger candidate like Kennedy or a third-party candidate like Cornel West.
Bill Wilson is the former president of Americans for Limited Government.
To view online: https://dailytorch.com/2023/06/over-a-fifth-of-blacks-would-support-trump-over-biden-huge-new-poll/
