By Mark Temnycky, June 27, 2025
On June 23, the United States targeted and damaged three Iranian nuclear facilities. U.S. officials stated that the strike was in response to Iran’s recent escalation against Israel. The Iranians responded to the attack by launching a new strike against Israel. Hundreds have died as a result of the recent conflict between Israel and Iran.
Numerous countries around the world have been anxiously watching the events unfold in the Middle East. They have called for peace. The countries have also urged Israeli and Iranian leaders to stop the fighting, and they have pushed for negotiations. Despite these pleas, Israel and Iran have continued fighting. It is uncertain how the tensions will de-escalate.
As the international community continues to monitor the situation, at least one country will be particularly interested in seeing how the developments unfold. This is none other than the Russian Federation.
Over the past several years, Russia has relied heavily on Iran, especially during the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When the Russian Federation launched its attack, it believed the war would end in a matter of days. Instead, Russia has waged its war for three and a half years.
The invasion has been a failure. To date, the Russians have had over one million casualties. In addition, tens of billions of dollars of Russian military equipment have been destroyed. Finally, the Russians have lost hundreds of billions of dollars due to international sanctions.
Due to these losses and international penalties, the Russians have been forced to rely on their allies for assistance and equipment for the war. In Iran’s case, Russia has acquired attack and surveillance unmanned combat aerial vehicles, known as Shahed drones. In addition, the Russians have received short-range ballistic missiles from the Iranians. The Russians have used both the Shahed drones and the ballistic missiles to launch attacks on non-military targets throughout Ukraine.
But the recent conflict between Israel and Iran jeopardizes Russia’s relationship with Iran. As Iran looks to defend itself from Israeli attacks, it will look to bolster its defense capabilities. This may mean that the Iranians will decrease their defense operations and sales with the Russian Federation, as Iran would rather have the capabilities for themselves so that they can be used in the war against Israel. In other words, this could see a reduction in Shahed drones and ballistic missiles being sent from Iran to Russia. As a result, this would limit Russia’s ability to launch future attacks on Ukraine. (A report by Business Insider stated that Russia has attempted to build Shahed-like drones within Russia. The Russian-made drones, however, have not been as effective in their war in Ukraine as the Iranian-supplied drones.)
Furthermore, the war between Israel and Iran has put Russia in a political dilemma. This is because the Russian Federation has a strong relationship with both countries. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia and Israel have established a “close political, economic, and cultural relationship.” The two countries conduct billions of dollars in trade annually, and this relationship helps boost the economies of both countries. Additionally, Russian President Vladimir Putin has met with and spoken to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on numerous occasions, suggesting that they have a personal rapport.
Russia has also maintained close ties with Iran. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia became a “top supplier of weapons and technology to Iran.” Then, during the Syrian Civil War, both Russia and Iran supported Bashar al-Assad’s government. Most recently, the Russians and Iranians signed a treaty that called for the strengthening of political, economic, and military ties. This “strategic partnership” has seen an increase in relations between Russia and Iran.
But the Israel-Iran war jeopardizes Russia’s relationship with Iran. While the Iranians have supplied Russia with defense equipment and weapons, the Russians have not provided the Iranians with serious military assistance to be used against Israel. Aside from condemning the U.S. strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, the Russians have done little else to support Iran. These actions might signal to Tehran that it should turn elsewhere as it continues its fight against Israel and the United States, something which could damage political relations with Russia.
Finally, aside from the defense and political consequences of the Israel-Iran war for Russia, there will also be economic consequences. According to Maxim Reshetnikov, Russia’s Minister for Economic Development, the Russian Federation is currently on the “brink of a recession.” High inflation, high interest rates, and stagnation are presently impacting the Russian economy. Should these signs persist, Russia’s purchasing power will decline, forcing it to purchase fewer weapons and equipment for its war.
Russia is also not alone in its economic struggles. According to a report by the Atlantic Council, “Iran’s economy is underperforming.” Economic sanctions and inflation have severely impacted Iran. Trade with neighboring countries has also declined, further contributing to an underperforming Iranian economy. Due to these issues, as well as the current war with Israel, the Iranian regime may decide to turn inward to try to address these financial challenges. This could lead to reduced economic cooperation between Russia and Iran.
In short, the war between Israel and Iran will have an impact on the Russian Federation. It will affect Russia’s reliance on defense weapons from Iran, where the Iranians will use their equipment to attack Israel rather than send the defense capabilities to Russia. The current war will create a rift in political relations as Russia will not choose a side between Israel and Iran. Finally, the Israel-Iran war will generate greater economic issues for both Russia and Iran. This would result in a reduction in the purchasing of defense equipment for their respective wars.
No one is certain how the war between Israel and Iran will unfold. But the conflict will have significant consequences for Russia and its war in Ukraine. Time will tell how significant this impact will be.
Mark Temnycky is a nonresident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a freelance journalist covering Eurasian affairs.
This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.