Vice President JD Vance said Wednesday that the war with Iran was the main reason Republicans lost the House and Senate, and President Trump agreed hours later that the war had hurt the party while saying he would make the same decision again.
“The reason we lost is the war,” Vance wrote in a long post on X that had drawn more than 59 million views by early Thursday. “The president himself said so last night.”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we’re going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there’s going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I’m open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
— JD Vance (@JDVance) November 4, 2026
What Vance wrote
Vance said Republican data analysts tracked turnout closely before Election Day and found that the party’s voters were showing up. The trouble, he wrote, was that many of them switched sides. “The main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026,” he wrote.
Vance cited an unnamed pollster who had predicted Republicans would lose the generic ballot by 13 points. That pollster asked Trump voters who had left the party what would bring them back. Vance listed the four top answers: end the war, focus on the cost of living and inflation, put America first, and change the country’s relationship with Israel.
He also warned against one proposed fix. “Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty,” he wrote. “But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.” He said he was open to focusing enforcement more on businesses that hire illegal labor.
“If you’d like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so,” Vance wrote. “Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that’s at least honest.”
Trump’s answer
Trump took questions Wednesday at a ceremony for the final steel beam of the new White House ballroom, his first public appearance since the election. Asked about Vance’s view, he said it was “largely true” because the war “drove the gasoline up.”
“If I had it to do again, I’d have to do it again, because long term, it’s the only answer,” Trump said. “You can’t let Iran have a nuclear weapon.”
He said he knew how Vance felt before the post went up. “I thought it was good,” he said.
Trump told The Wall Street Journal, “I did the right thing. I would have done it again.” He said he had no plans to replace members of his Cabinet and called Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “terrific,” Stars and Stripes reported.
Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., who opposed the war and lost his May primary to a Trump-backed challenger, answered Vance on X. “Thanks for acknowledging these things. Better late than never,” he wrote.
The bottom line
Vance did his party a service by saying plainly what the returns showed. Republican voters turned out on Tuesday, and many of them voted for Democrats because of the war and the prices that came with it. A party that ignores that evidence will repeat the result in 2028.
The President’s case for the war is a serious one. Keeping a nuclear weapon away from the regime in Tehran is a real national interest, and Trump deserves credit for owning his decision and its political cost.
Republicans now owe voters a plan to end the war on American terms and bring down gas and grocery bills well before the next election. They should also heed Vance’s warning on amnesty. The voters who left over the war and prices did not ask for looser borders, and leaders who use this defeat to push amnesty would be ignoring the evidence.